Rams vs Bengals Odds Monday Night Football (Week 3)
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 Even | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Rams vs. Bengals odds for Monday Night Football have Cincinnati as three-point home favorites with quarterback Joe Burrow reportedly active despite of a calf injury.
Before the season, if I told you a top-five quarterback was playing in this game, you would probably guess that Burrow and the Bengals were undefeated and Matthew Stafford's injury woes had continued into another season, with the Rams tanking for a top-five draft pick and full rebuild. Instead, nearly the exact opposite is true.
Let's break down this Super Bowl rematch between Los Angeles and Cincinnati and make a Rams vs. Bengals pick and prediction.
Editor's Note: The Rams vs. Bengals preview below was written before word of Joe Burrow's status.
Rams vs. Bengals
Matchup Analysis
As of writing on Sunday night, we don't know the official status of Joe Burrow (calf).
The market has taken a clear stance, and it's that he's not going to play. The Rams opened as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday, and by Monday morning, the line had moved to Bengals -3.5. That seemed like the books hedging down the middle on his potential absence.
By Monday afternoon, the line was down to Bengals -2.5 — through the key number of three — and now sits at Bengals -1.5. Jake Browning is the expected starter for the Bengals, which raises a ton of uncertainty about what Cincinnati will be able to do offensively.
Burrow's lack of health pretty much renders the early season passing data irrelevant for the Bengals. They'll need to run the ball more effectively than they have thus far if they want to sustain drives.
Through two weeks, the Bengals rank 29th in Rushing Success Rate. The Rams' defensive front isn't nearly as good as the Browns' or Ravens', but trusting this offensive line to be effective has been a bad bet in the past, and I'm not betting on it in the future.
Orlando Brown really struggled in both pass and run blocking at left tackle in Week 1, and PFF has left guard Cordell Volson graded 71st of 75 guards through two weeks.
The Rams rank 14th in Rushing Success Rate allowed. That's notable when you consider they faced two solid run offenses in San Francisco and Seattle.
Bet Los Angeles vs. Cincinnati at FanDuel
Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has made his name in the league by slowing down the league's elite quarterbacks and forcing them to hold the ball longer than they normally do. One of the underrated discussion points of the Bengals offseason was the loss of some of their defensive personnel, namely safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates.
Through two weeks, the Bengals have played the inconsistent Browns and the injured Ravens, yet they rank just 21st in EPA per play allowed. They're also 29th in Success Rate allowed.
I had the Bengals defense circled as a unit that could face real regression this year, and through two weeks, it can't be rated as anything but average. I'd argue it's even below average, and one that Stafford and Sean McVay could have a lot of success exploiting in space.
The Rams offense was bad on early downs in Week 1, and Stafford played at an absurd level to propel them against the Seahawks. They then posted 23 points against the 49ers and could have had more if not for an unlucky deflected interception in the fourth quarter.
Stafford ranks 18th in EPA + CPOE composite, but he's played at an elite level personally.
The offensive line is a major issue for this unit, but with Stafford and McVay's creativity, plus the emergence of Puka Nacua, the Rams offense has not missed a beat sans Cooper Kupp.
Rams vs. Bengals
Betting Picks & Predictions
Out of 251 teams, only six have made the postseason in the Super Bowl era after starting 0-3.
The Bengals' playoff chances hinge greatly on winning this game with or without Burrow. His precision passing game and the wide receivers' ability to win one-on-one isolation routes have defined the offense for two years now, and it's hard to imagine Browning executing the offense anywhere close to the same level of efficiency or precision.
Browning is a below-average backup at best, and while we saw Joshua Dobbs, Gardner Minshew and Andy Dalton all post solid passing days on Sunday, there's no way I can justify laying points with the Bengals.
The Rams are not only an excellent teaser option, but I'd bet them at any dog price if Burrow doesn't play.
