2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Lines for the NFL's Biggest Stars
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs | +300 |
Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills | +400 |
C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans | +550 |
Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles | +1200 |
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers | +1800 |
Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals | +2000 |
Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys | +2200 |
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens | +2200 |
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals | +2500 |
Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets | +3000 |
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions | +3000 |
Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints | +3000 |
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +4000 |
Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers | +4500 |
Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons | +5000 |
Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers | +6000 |
Sam Darnold - Minnesota Vikings | +8000 |
Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams | +8000 |
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars | +10000 |
Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles | +10000 |
Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks | +10000 |
Tyreek Hill - Miami Dolphins | +12500 |
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts | +12500 |
Justin Fields - Pittsburgh Steelers | +12500 |
Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears | +12500 |
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins | +12500 |
Justin Jefferson - Minnesota Vikings | +12500 |
James Cook - Buffalo Bills | +15000 |
Cooper Kupp - Los Angeles Rams | +15000 |
Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns | +15000 |
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, updated in real-time. Confused? Learn more about how American odds work.
A quarterback’s been named MVP 11 years in a row and all but once over the past 18. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top 18 favorites to win it this year are all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes tops the list as he looks to win the third MVP of his career as he previously won it in 2018 and 2022. He’d become the seventh player to win at least three, joining Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas.
Josh Allen is hot on his tail, though, but it'll likely require a better final record than the Chiefs. They go head-to-head in Buffalo in November, and that might be where the MVP is eventually decided.
Meanwhile, CJ Stroud saw a move upward, too, despite an imperfect performance on Sunday Night Football. Still, his signs of flash -- and a weaker schedule -- mean he's very much in play for the NFL's most prestigious individual award.
Here are the main criteria for selecting the NFL MVP (and a guide on how to bet this market), one developed by my colleague and data guru Brandon Anderson.
- The winner is very, very likely to be a quarterback.
- Voters love repeat winners, but not back-to-back.
- MVPs put up great numbers but limit turnovers.
- MVPs win a lot of games; they're usually No. 1 seeds in their conference.
- Preseason long shots have been the norm of late.
- EPA/play + CPOE is the best single MVP predictor.
Christian McCaffrey has the best odds of any non-quarterback despite missing Week 1. He’d join Adrian Peterson (2012), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000) as running backs to win the award over the past 25 years.
Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill still has the best odds of any wide receiver to win MVP and would become the first wideout to ever win the award. Micah Parsons has the best odds of any defensive player. He’d join Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) as the only defensive players to do so.
2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Comparison
Compare odds for NFL MVP across all major U.S. sportsbooks.
FUTURES | Consensus | Cons. | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick MahomesP.Mahomes | +300 | N/A | +300 | +300 | +260 | +300 | |
Josh AllenJ.Allen | +425 | N/A | +400 | +425 | +500 | +400 | |
C.J. StroudC.Stroud | +550 | N/A | +550 | +550 | +500 | +500 | |
Jalen HurtsJ.Hurts | +1200 | N/A | +1200 | +1300 | +1200 | +1200 | |
Joe BurrowJ.Burrow | +2000 | N/A | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 | |
Brock PurdyB.Purdy | +2000 | N/A | +1800 | +2200 | +2000 | +2000 | |
Lamar JacksonL.Jackson | +2200 | N/A | +2200 | +2000 | +2800 | +2000 | |
Dak PrescottD.Prescott | +2200 | N/A | +2200 | +2200 | +2500 | +2500 | |
Kyler MurrayK.Murray | +2500 | N/A | +2500 | +2500 | +2800 | +3000 | |
Jared GoffJ.Goff | +2500 | N/A | +3000 | +2500 | +3500 | +2500 | |
Aaron RodgersA.Rodgers | +3000 | N/A | +3000 | +3000 | +2000 | +2500 | |
Derek CarrD.Carr | +3000 | N/A | +3000 | +2500 | +3300 | +4000 | |
Baker MayfieldB.Mayfield | +3000 | N/A | +4000 | +2500 | +3000 | +3000 | |
Justin HerbertJ.Herbert | +4500 | N/A | +4500 | +4500 | +3000 | +3000 | |
Kirk CousinsK.Cousins | +5000 | N/A | +5000 | +6000 | +3500 | +5000 | |
Jordan LoveJ.Love | +6000 | N/A | +6000 | +6000 | +5000 | +6000 | |
Sam DarnoldS.Darnold | +6600 | N/A | +8000 | +6000 | +15000 | +6600 | |
Matthew StaffordM.Stafford | +7500 | N/A | +8000 | +7500 | +5000 | +6600 | |
Anthony RichardsonA.Richardson | +8000 | N/A | +12500 | +8000 | +10000 | +6600 | |
Saquon BarkleyS.Barkley | +10000 | N/A | +10000 | +7500 | +10000 | +8000 | |
Trevor LawrenceT.Lawrence | +10000 | N/A | +10000 | +8000 | +13000 | +10000 | |
Geno SmithG.Smith | +10000 | N/A | +10000 | +10000 | +7500 | +10000 | |
Tyreek HillT.Hill | +12500 | N/A | +12500 | +10000 | +13000 | +10000 | |
Justin JeffersonJ.Jefferson | +12500 | N/A | +12500 | +13000 | +8000 | +10000 | |
Caleb WilliamsC.Williams | +15000 | N/A | +12500 | +15000 | +18000 | +10000 | |
Deshaun WatsonD.Watson | +15000 | N/A | +15000 | +20000 | +12000 | +15000 | |
Jayden DanielsJ.Daniels | +15000 | N/A | +15000 | +15000 | +20000 | +15000 | |
Tua TagovailoaT.Tagovailoa | +15390 | N/A | +12500 | +20000 | N/A | N/A | |
Justin FieldsJ.Fields | +17000 | N/A | +12500 | +17000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
CeeDee LambC.Lamb | +17500 | N/A | +17500 | +15000 | +18000 | +20000 | |
Alvin KamaraA.Kamara | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
T.J. WattT.Watt | +20000 | N/A | +15000 | +20000 | +20000 | +20000 | |
Myles GarrettM.Garrett | +20000 | N/A | +22500 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Micah ParsonsM.Parsons | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Kyren WilliamsK.Williams | +20000 | N/A | N/A | +20000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
Jonathan TaylorJ.Taylor | +20000 | N/A | +15000 | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Breece HallB.Hall | +22223 | N/A | +30000 | +20000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Nick BosaN.Bosa | +22223 | N/A | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Will LevisW.Levis | +25000 | N/A | +50000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Jordan MasonJ.Mason | +25000 | N/A | +25000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Cooper KuppC.Kupp | +25000 | N/A | +15000 | +25000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Bijan RobinsonB.Robinson | +25000 | N/A | +25000 | +25000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Maxx CrosbyM.Crosby | +25000 | N/A | +25000 | +20000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Derrick HenryD.Henry | +25000 | N/A | +25000 | +25000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
A.J. BrownA.Brown | +27274 | N/A | N/A | +25000 | +30000 | +50000 | |
Nico CollinsN.Collins | +30000 | N/A | +50000 | +30000 | +30000 | N/A | |
Nick ChubbN.Chubb | +30000 | N/A | +30000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Aidan HutchinsonA.Hutchinson | +30000 | N/A | +25000 | +40000 | +30000 | N/A | |
Deebo SamuelD.Samuel | +30000 | N/A | +50000 | +20000 | +30000 | +30000 | |
Bo NixB.Nix | +30000 | N/A | +30000 | +20000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Chase | +30000 | N/A | +20000 | +30000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
Daniel JonesD.Jones | +30000 | N/A | +50000 | +30000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
Jacoby BrissettJ.Brissett | +30000 | N/A | N/A | +30000 | +30000 | N/A | |
Taysom HillT.Hill | +30000 | N/A | +30000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Gardner MinshewG.Minshew | +30000 | N/A | +30000 | +30000 | +20000 | N/A | |
Amon-Ra St. BrownA.St. Brown | +30000 | N/A | +50000 | +25000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Stefon DiggsS.Diggs | +30000 | N/A | +30000 | +30000 | +40000 | +30000 | |
Marvin HarrisonM.Harrison | +30000 | N/A | N/A | +30000 | N/A | N/A | |
Jahmyr GibbsJ.Gibbs | +30000 | N/A | +50000 | +25000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
De'Von AchaneD.Achane | +30000 | N/A | +35000 | +30000 | +30000 | +25000 | |
Christian McCaffreyC.McCaffrey | +35000 | N/A | +25000 | +35000 | N/A | +25000 | |
Garrett WilsonG.Wilson | +35000 | N/A | +30000 | +35000 | +40000 | +30000 | |
Michael PenixM.Penix | +37506 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | +30000 | N/A | |
Andy DaltonA.Dalton | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
Russell WilsonR.Wilson | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +30000 | +20000 | |
Davante AdamsD.Adams | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | +40000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
Raheem MostertR.Mostert | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
Michael PittmanM.Pittman | +40000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
Mark AndrewsM.Andrews | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
Josh Hines-AllenJ.Hines-Allen | +40000 | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
Chris OlaveC.Olave | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Kenneth WalkerK.Walker | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | |
Zay FlowersZ.Flowers | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | |
Travis KelceT.Kelce | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +40000 | +20000 | |
Tee HigginsT.Higgins | +40000 | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
Sauce GardnerS.Gardner | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Sam LaPortaS.LaPorta | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | +30000 | N/A | |
Roquan SmithR.Smith | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Rashee RiceR.Rice | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Mike EvansM.Evans | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +40000 | +30000 | |
Keenan AllenK.Allen | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Josh JacobsJ.Jacobs | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | +40000 | +40000 | +30000 | |
Jaylon JohnsonJ.Johnson | +40000 | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
George KittleG.Kittle | +40000 | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | +40000 | +50000 | |
Drake LondonD.London | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | N/A | |
DK MetcalfD.Metcalf | +40000 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +40000 | +50000 | |
Trey HendricksonT.Hendrickson | +40000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
Devon WitherspoonD.Witherspoon | +40000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
Derek StingleyD.Stingley | +40000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
DJ MooreD.Moore | +44446 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
Isiah PachecoI.Pacheco | +44446 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | |
Will AndersonW.Anderson | +44446 | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | +30000 | |
Sam HowellS.Howell | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Amari CooperA.Cooper | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Brandon AiyukB.Aiyuk | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Austin EkelerA.Ekeler | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +20000 | |
Joe MixonJ.Mixon | +50000 | N/A | +100000 | +50000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Travis EtienneT.Etienne | +50000 | N/A | +100000 | +50000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Chris JonesC.Jones | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Aaron JonesA.Jones | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | +30000 | |
Terry McLaurinT.McLaurin | +50000 | N/A | +100000 | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | |
James ConnerJ.Conner | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | |
Tony PollardT.Pollard | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | +50000 | +30000 | +30000 | |
Tank DellT.Dell | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | |
Rachaad WhiteR.White | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +50000 | N/A | +30000 | |
Najee HarrisN.Harris | +50000 | N/A | N/A | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | |
James CookJ.Cook | +50000 | N/A | +15000 | +50000 | N/A | +20000 | |
George PickensG.Pickens | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Fred WarnerF.Warner | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | +50000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Malik NabersM.Nabers | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Rome OdunzeR.Odunze | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Rhamondre StevensonR.Stevenson | +50000 | N/A | +100000 | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | |
D'Andre SwiftD.Swift | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | +50000 | N/A | +30000 | |
DeVonta SmithD.Smith | +50000 | N/A | +100000 | +50000 | N/A | N/A | |
David MontgomeryD.Montgomery | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | +50000 | N/A | N/A | |
Joey BosaJ.Bosa | +50000 | N/A | +50000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Jaylen WaddleJ.Waddle | +57161 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | +40000 | N/A | |
Drake MayeD.Maye | +57161 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | +40000 | +20000 | |
T.J. HockensonT.Hockenson | +75000 | N/A | +75000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Bryce YoungB.Young | +100000 | N/A | N/A | +100000 | N/A | +20000 | |
Christian WatsonC.Watson | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Zach WilsonZ.Wilson | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Brian ThomasB.Thomas | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Kenny PickettK.Pickett | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Aidan O'ConnellA.O'Connell | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Devin SingletaryD.Singletary | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Calvin RidleyC.Ridley | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Desmond RidderD.Ridder | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Danielle HunterD.Hunter | +100000 | N/A | N/A | +100000 | +40000 | N/A | |
Jaylen WarrenJ.Warren | +100000 | N/A | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | |
Jalen RamseyJ.Ramsey | +100000 | N/A | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | |
Jalen CarterJ.Carter | +100000 | N/A | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | |
Brock BowersB.Bowers | +100000 | N/A | +100000 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
How to Win NFL MVP
So you want to win NFL MVP -- or if you're reading this, you want to corretly bet the NFL MVP? Here's how to do it:
The Positions
Does the award gravitate toward a certain position?
This is a quarterback award, unless a running back posts an insane season.
The last time a non-QB or RB won was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Kicker Mark Moseley won in the strike-shortened 1982 season, which is hilarious. DT Alan Page won in 1971. Those are the only three non-quarterbacks or running backs.
A wide receiver has never won.
And 10 of the 18 running backs that did win happened before 1980.
It's a quarterback award.
The Voting
How does the voting work?
Who votes: A nationwide panel of media votes on the award. The NFL uses the AP's award as its official one, though several other outlets also give it out.
How many votes: Voters pick one player, so there are only 50 total ballots.
When do they vote? End of the regular season.
Any voting biases? It doesn't seem like it.
How many players get votes? Very few. Just 30 total players have received a vote in the past 10 years, and in many years, it's just two players. There isn't a ton of controversy around the winner.
The Narrative
Does a player need some "positive narrative" in their favor to win?
Not really. It's mostly about on-field performance.
The player doesn't have to be loved by the media. Nor does he need to have a feel-good story. Aaron Rodgers has won twice in a row after all.
The "carrying the team on his back" narrative can help a bit, if the perception is that the player brought the team much further than expected with little help around him.
Adrian Peterson for example helped get the Vikings to the postseason in 2012 with the second-most rushing yards ever in a season. Christian Ponder was their quarterback.
The Stats
What kinds of stats do voters care about?
Stats very much matter.
But the weird thing is that touchdowns (and TD/INT ratio) seem to matter the most.
Advanced stats like QBR seem somewhat predictive of the winner, but voters for most awards are focused on raw, easily quantifiable stats like TDs and INTs.
Passing yards don't seem to matter quite as much either, as long as the quarterback is among the league leaders.
Past NFL MVPs
MVP | Year |
Lamar Jackson | 2023-24 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2022-23 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2021-22 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2020-21 |
Lamar Jackson | 2019-20 |
Patrick Mahomes | 2018-19 |
Tom Brady | 2017-18 |
Matt Ryan | 2016-17 |
Cam Newton | 2015-16 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2014-15 |
Peyton Manning | 2013-14 |
Adrian Peterson | 2012-13 |
Aaron Rodgers | 2011-12 |
Tom Brady | 2010-11 |
Peyton Manning | 2009-10 |
Peyton Manning | 2008-09 |
Tom Brady | 2007-08 |
LaDainian Tomlinson | 2006-07 |
Shaun Alexander | 2005-06 |
Peyton Manning | 2004-05 |
Peyton Manning | 2003-04 |
Steve McNair | 2003-04 |
Rich Gannon | 2002-03 |
Kurt Warner | 2001-02 |
Marshall Faulk | 2000-01 |