2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Tracker: Lines for the NFL's Biggest Stars

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PlayerOdds
Patrick Mahomes - Kansas City Chiefs+300
Josh Allen - Buffalo Bills+400
C.J. Stroud - Houston Texans+550
Jalen Hurts - Philadelphia Eagles+1200
Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers+1800
Joe Burrow - Cincinnati Bengals+2000
Dak Prescott - Dallas Cowboys+2200
Lamar Jackson - Baltimore Ravens+2200
Kyler Murray - Arizona Cardinals+2500
Aaron Rodgers - New York Jets+3000
Jared Goff - Detroit Lions+3000
Derek Carr - New Orleans Saints+3000
Baker Mayfield - Tampa Bay Buccaneers+4000
Justin Herbert - Los Angeles Chargers+4500
Kirk Cousins - Atlanta Falcons+5000
Jordan Love - Green Bay Packers+6000
Sam Darnold - Minnesota Vikings+8000
Matthew Stafford - Los Angeles Rams+8000
Trevor Lawrence - Jacksonville Jaguars+10000
Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles+10000
Geno Smith - Seattle Seahawks+10000
Tyreek Hill - Miami Dolphins+12500
Anthony Richardson - Indianapolis Colts+12500
Justin Fields - Pittsburgh Steelers+12500
Caleb Williams - Chicago Bears+12500
Tua Tagovailoa - Miami Dolphins+12500
Justin Jefferson - Minnesota Vikings+12500
James Cook - Buffalo Bills+15000
Cooper Kupp - Los Angeles Rams+15000
Deshaun Watson - Cleveland Browns+15000

 Odds via Caesars Sportsbook, updated in real-time. Confused? Learn more about how American odds work.

A quarterback’s been named MVP 11 years in a row and all but once over the past 18. So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top 18 favorites to win it this year are all QBs.

Patrick Mahomes tops the list as he looks to win the third MVP of his career as he previously won it in 2018 and 2022. He’d become the seventh player to win at least three, joining Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Jim Brown and Johnny Unitas.

Josh Allen is hot on his tail, though, but it'll likely require a better final record than the Chiefs. They go head-to-head in Buffalo in November, and that might be where the MVP is eventually decided.

Meanwhile, CJ Stroud saw a move upward, too, despite an imperfect performance on Sunday Night Football. Still, his signs of flash -- and a weaker schedule -- mean he's very much in play for the NFL's most prestigious individual award.

Here are the main criteria for selecting the NFL MVP (and a guide on how to bet this market), one developed by my colleague and data guru Brandon Anderson.

  1. The winner is very, very likely to be a quarterback.
  2. Voters love repeat winners, but not back-to-back.
  3. MVPs put up great numbers but limit turnovers.
  4. MVPs win a lot of games; they're usually No. 1 seeds in their conference.
  5. Preseason long shots have been the norm of late.
  6. EPA/play + CPOE is the best single MVP predictor.

Christian McCaffrey has the best odds of any non-quarterback despite missing Week 1. He’d join Adrian Peterson (2012), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000) as running backs to win the award over the past 25 years.

Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill still has the best odds of any wide receiver to win MVP and would become the first wideout to ever win the award. Micah Parsons has the best odds of any defensive player. He’d join Alan Page (1971) and Lawrence Taylor (1986) as the only defensive players to do so.

2024-25 NFL MVP Odds Comparison

Compare odds for NFL MVP across all major U.S. sportsbooks.

FUTURESConsensusCons.
Patrick MahomesP.Mahomes
+300
N/A
+300
+300
+260
+300
Josh AllenJ.Allen
+425
N/A
+400
+425
+500
+400
C.J. StroudC.Stroud
+550
N/A
+550
+550
+500
+500
Jalen HurtsJ.Hurts
+1200
N/A
+1200
+1300
+1200
+1200
Joe BurrowJ.Burrow
+2000
N/A
+2000
+2000
+2000
+2000
Brock PurdyB.Purdy
+2000
N/A
+1800
+2200
+2000
+2000
Lamar JacksonL.Jackson
+2200
N/A
+2200
+2000
+2800
+2000
Dak PrescottD.Prescott
+2200
N/A
+2200
+2200
+2500
+2500
Kyler MurrayK.Murray
+2500
N/A
+2500
+2500
+2800
+3000
Jared GoffJ.Goff
+2500
N/A
+3000
+2500
+3500
+2500
Aaron RodgersA.Rodgers
+3000
N/A
+3000
+3000
+2000
+2500
Derek CarrD.Carr
+3000
N/A
+3000
+2500
+3300
+4000
Baker MayfieldB.Mayfield
+3000
N/A
+4000
+2500
+3000
+3000
Justin HerbertJ.Herbert
+4500
N/A
+4500
+4500
+3000
+3000
Kirk CousinsK.Cousins
+5000
N/A
+5000
+6000
+3500
+5000
Jordan LoveJ.Love
+6000
N/A
+6000
+6000
+5000
+6000
Sam DarnoldS.Darnold
+6600
N/A
+8000
+6000
+15000
+6600
Matthew StaffordM.Stafford
+7500
N/A
+8000
+7500
+5000
+6600
Anthony RichardsonA.Richardson
+8000
N/A
+12500
+8000
+10000
+6600
Saquon BarkleyS.Barkley
+10000
N/A
+10000
+7500
+10000
+8000
Trevor LawrenceT.Lawrence
+10000
N/A
+10000
+8000
+13000
+10000
Geno SmithG.Smith
+10000
N/A
+10000
+10000
+7500
+10000
Tyreek HillT.Hill
+12500
N/A
+12500
+10000
+13000
+10000
Justin JeffersonJ.Jefferson
+12500
N/A
+12500
+13000
+8000
+10000
Caleb WilliamsC.Williams
+15000
N/A
+12500
+15000
+18000
+10000
Deshaun WatsonD.Watson
+15000
N/A
+15000
+20000
+12000
+15000
Jayden DanielsJ.Daniels
+15000
N/A
+15000
+15000
+20000
+15000
Tua TagovailoaT.Tagovailoa
+15390
N/A
+12500
+20000
N/A
N/A
Justin FieldsJ.Fields
+17000
N/A
+12500
+17000
+30000
+20000
CeeDee LambC.Lamb
+17500
N/A
+17500
+15000
+18000
+20000
Alvin KamaraA.Kamara
+20000
N/A
+20000
+20000
+30000
+20000
T.J. WattT.Watt
+20000
N/A
+15000
+20000
+20000
+20000
Myles GarrettM.Garrett
+20000
N/A
+22500
+20000
+30000
+20000
Micah ParsonsM.Parsons
+20000
N/A
+20000
+20000
+30000
+20000
Kyren WilliamsK.Williams
+20000
N/A
N/A
+20000
+40000
+20000
Jonathan TaylorJ.Taylor
+20000
N/A
+15000
+20000
N/A
+20000
Breece HallB.Hall
+22223
N/A
+30000
+20000
N/A
+20000
Nick BosaN.Bosa
+22223
N/A
+25000
+20000
+30000
+20000
Will LevisW.Levis
+25000
N/A
+50000
+20000
+30000
+20000
Jordan MasonJ.Mason
+25000
N/A
+25000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Cooper KuppC.Kupp
+25000
N/A
+15000
+25000
N/A
+20000
Bijan RobinsonB.Robinson
+25000
N/A
+25000
+25000
+30000
+20000
Maxx CrosbyM.Crosby
+25000
N/A
+25000
+20000
+30000
+20000
Derrick HenryD.Henry
+25000
N/A
+25000
+25000
+40000
+20000
A.J. BrownA.Brown
+27274
N/A
N/A
+25000
+30000
+50000
Nico CollinsN.Collins
+30000
N/A
+50000
+30000
+30000
N/A
Nick ChubbN.Chubb
+30000
N/A
+30000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Aidan HutchinsonA.Hutchinson
+30000
N/A
+25000
+40000
+30000
N/A
Deebo SamuelD.Samuel
+30000
N/A
+50000
+20000
+30000
+30000
Bo NixB.Nix
+30000
N/A
+30000
+20000
+40000
+20000
Ja'Marr ChaseJ.Chase
+30000
N/A
+20000
+30000
+40000
+20000
Daniel JonesD.Jones
+30000
N/A
+50000
+30000
+40000
+20000
Jacoby BrissettJ.Brissett
+30000
N/A
N/A
+30000
+30000
N/A
Taysom HillT.Hill
+30000
N/A
+30000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Gardner MinshewG.Minshew
+30000
N/A
+30000
+30000
+20000
N/A
Amon-Ra St. BrownA.St. Brown
+30000
N/A
+50000
+25000
+30000
+20000
Stefon DiggsS.Diggs
+30000
N/A
+30000
+30000
+40000
+30000
Marvin HarrisonM.Harrison
+30000
N/A
N/A
+30000
N/A
N/A
Jahmyr GibbsJ.Gibbs
+30000
N/A
+50000
+25000
+30000
+20000
De'Von AchaneD.Achane
+30000
N/A
+35000
+30000
+30000
+25000
Christian McCaffreyC.McCaffrey
+35000
N/A
+25000
+35000
N/A
+25000
Garrett WilsonG.Wilson
+35000
N/A
+30000
+35000
+40000
+30000
Michael PenixM.Penix
+37506
N/A
+50000
N/A
+30000
N/A
Andy DaltonA.Dalton
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
N/A
N/A
Russell WilsonR.Wilson
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
+30000
+20000
Davante AdamsD.Adams
+40000
N/A
+30000
+40000
+40000
+20000
Raheem MostertR.Mostert
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
N/A
N/A
Michael PittmanM.Pittman
+40000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
Mark AndrewsM.Andrews
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
N/A
N/A
Josh Hines-AllenJ.Hines-Allen
+40000
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
N/A
Chris OlaveC.Olave
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
+40000
N/A
Kenneth WalkerK.Walker
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
N/A
+30000
Zay FlowersZ.Flowers
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
N/A
+30000
Travis KelceT.Kelce
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
+40000
+20000
Tee HigginsT.Higgins
+40000
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
N/A
Sauce GardnerS.Gardner
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
+40000
N/A
Sam LaPortaS.LaPorta
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
+30000
N/A
Roquan SmithR.Smith
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
+40000
N/A
Rashee RiceR.Rice
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
+40000
N/A
Mike EvansM.Evans
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
+40000
+30000
Keenan AllenK.Allen
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
N/A
+20000
Josh JacobsJ.Jacobs
+40000
N/A
+30000
+40000
+40000
+30000
Jaylon JohnsonJ.Johnson
+40000
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
N/A
George KittleG.Kittle
+40000
N/A
+100000
+40000
+40000
+50000
Drake LondonD.London
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
N/A
N/A
DK MetcalfD.Metcalf
+40000
N/A
+50000
+40000
+40000
+50000
Trey HendricksonT.Hendrickson
+40000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
Devon WitherspoonD.Witherspoon
+40000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
Derek StingleyD.Stingley
+40000
N/A
N/A
N/A
+40000
N/A
DJ MooreD.Moore
+44446
N/A
+50000
N/A
+40000
N/A
Isiah PachecoI.Pacheco
+44446
N/A
+50000
+40000
N/A
+30000
Will AndersonW.Anderson
+44446
N/A
+50000
+40000
N/A
+30000
Sam HowellS.Howell
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Amari CooperA.Cooper
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Brandon AiyukB.Aiyuk
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Austin EkelerA.Ekeler
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
+20000
Joe MixonJ.Mixon
+50000
N/A
+100000
+50000
N/A
+20000
Travis EtienneT.Etienne
+50000
N/A
+100000
+50000
N/A
+20000
Chris JonesC.Jones
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
+40000
N/A
Aaron JonesA.Jones
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
+40000
+30000
Terry McLaurinT.McLaurin
+50000
N/A
+100000
+50000
+40000
N/A
James ConnerJ.Conner
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
N/A
+50000
Tony PollardT.Pollard
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
+30000
+30000
Tank DellT.Dell
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
Rachaad WhiteR.White
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
N/A
+30000
Najee HarrisN.Harris
+50000
N/A
N/A
+50000
+40000
N/A
James CookJ.Cook
+50000
N/A
+15000
+50000
N/A
+20000
George PickensG.Pickens
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
+40000
N/A
Fred WarnerF.Warner
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
+40000
N/A
Malik NabersM.Nabers
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Rome OdunzeR.Odunze
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Rhamondre StevensonR.Stevenson
+50000
N/A
+100000
+50000
N/A
+50000
D'Andre SwiftD.Swift
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
N/A
+30000
DeVonta SmithD.Smith
+50000
N/A
+100000
+50000
N/A
N/A
David MontgomeryD.Montgomery
+50000
N/A
+50000
+50000
N/A
N/A
Joey BosaJ.Bosa
+50000
N/A
+50000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Jaylen WaddleJ.Waddle
+57161
N/A
+100000
N/A
+40000
N/A
Drake MayeD.Maye
+57161
N/A
+100000
N/A
+40000
+20000
T.J. HockensonT.Hockenson
+75000
N/A
+75000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Bryce YoungB.Young
+100000
N/A
N/A
+100000
N/A
+20000
Christian WatsonC.Watson
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Zach WilsonZ.Wilson
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Brian ThomasB.Thomas
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Kenny PickettK.Pickett
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Aidan O'ConnellA.O'Connell
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Devin SingletaryD.Singletary
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Calvin RidleyC.Ridley
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Desmond RidderD.Ridder
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A
Danielle HunterD.Hunter
+100000
N/A
N/A
+100000
+40000
N/A
Jaylen WarrenJ.Warren
+100000
N/A
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
Jalen RamseyJ.Ramsey
+100000
N/A
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
Jalen CarterJ.Carter
+100000
N/A
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
Brock BowersB.Bowers
+100000
N/A
+100000
N/A
N/A
N/A

How to Win NFL MVP

So you want to win NFL MVP -- or if you're reading this, you want to corretly bet the NFL MVP? Here's how to do it:

The Positions

Does the award gravitate toward a certain position?

This is a quarterback award, unless a running back posts an insane season.

The last time a non-QB or RB won was Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Kicker Mark Moseley won in the strike-shortened 1982 season, which is hilarious. DT Alan Page won in 1971. Those are the only three non-quarterbacks or running backs.

A wide receiver has never won.

And 10 of the 18 running backs that did win happened before 1980.

It's a quarterback award.

The Voting

How does the voting work?

Who votes: A nationwide panel of media votes on the award. The NFL uses the AP's award as its official one, though several other outlets also give it out.

How many votes: Voters pick one player, so there are only 50 total ballots.

When do they vote? End of the regular season.

Any voting biases? It doesn't seem like it.

How many players get votes? Very few. Just 30 total players have received a vote in the past 10 years, and in many years, it's just two players. There isn't a ton of controversy around the winner.

The Narrative

Does a player need some "positive narrative" in their favor to win?

Not really. It's mostly about on-field performance.

The player doesn't have to be loved by the media. Nor does he need to have a feel-good story. Aaron Rodgers has won twice in a row after all.

The "carrying the team on his back" narrative can help a bit, if the perception is that the player brought the team much further than expected with little help around him.

Adrian Peterson for example helped get the Vikings to the postseason in 2012 with the second-most rushing yards ever in a season. Christian Ponder was their quarterback.

The Stats

What kinds of stats do voters care about?

Stats very much matter.

But the weird thing is that touchdowns (and TD/INT ratio) seem to matter the most.

Advanced stats like QBR seem somewhat predictive of the winner, but voters for most awards are focused on raw, easily quantifiable stats like TDs and INTs.

Passing yards don't seem to matter quite as much either, as long as the quarterback is among the league leaders.

Past NFL MVPs

MVP  Year
Lamar Jackson 2023-24
Patrick Mahomes 2022-23
Aaron Rodgers 2021-22
Aaron Rodgers 2020-21
Lamar Jackson 2019-20
Patrick Mahomes 2018-19
Tom Brady 2017-18
Matt Ryan 2016-17
Cam Newton 2015-16
Aaron Rodgers 2014-15
Peyton Manning 2013-14
Adrian Peterson 2012-13
Aaron Rodgers 2011-12
Tom Brady 2010-11
Peyton Manning 2009-10
Peyton Manning 2008-09
Tom Brady 2007-08
LaDainian Tomlinson 2006-07
Shaun Alexander 2005-06
Peyton Manning 2004-05
Peyton Manning 2003-04
Steve McNair 2003-04
Rich Gannon 2002-03
Kurt Warner 2001-02
Marshall Faulk 2000-01
NFL MVP Odds FAQs
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