NFL Picks, Predictions: Expert Bets on Spreads, Totals | Week 6
Here's everything you need to know about NFL picks and predictions in Week 6, including our top betting expert's top plays and bets on spreads and totals. Our Week 6 NFL picks include two picks on favorites against the spread, an underdog against the spread, and an under on a total on Sunday.
And if you're looking to get the most value on your NFL picks and bets for Week 6, make sure to use our BetMGM bonus code.
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Picks |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Vikings vs. Bears
This is a classic sell-high on the Bears and buy-low on the Vikings with some Justin Jefferson injury overreaction mixed in.
While both teams are 1-4, the Vikings have faced the seventh-hardest schedule by DVOA, while the Bears have faced the 25th-hardest. All four of the Vikings' losses have come by one possession and against common opponents, the Vikings lost by three to the Bucs while the Bears lost by 10, and Minnesota lost by 7 to the Chiefs while the Bears lost by 31.
Jefferson is obviously a huge loss but if there was ever a time to lose the best receiver in football, it’s when facing a pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA and 31st in EPA per dropback. Kirk Cousins still has two plus targets in first-round rookie WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson. Cousins should also be operating from a clean pocket, as the Bears rank 26th in pressure rate (18.6%).
The Vikings can also have success if they choose to go more run-heavy in the absence of Jefferson, as they rank No. 1 in Pro Football Focus' (PFF) run-blocking grade (80.4). Minnesota's run game is trending up due to the acquisition of Cam Akers, who is a better scheme fit here than he was with the Rams. In limited action, Akers is averaging 5.5 yards per carry and a 60.0% success rate behind the same line that Alexander Mattison is averaging 4.5 yards per carry and a 48.4% success rate with.
And as much as I’m a believer in Justin Fields (I have an MVP future), this is likely the top of his market coming off 618 yards and eight touchdown passes over his previous two games. Brian Flores has the Vikings defense playing solid, ranking 19th in DVOA overall (14th against the run, 21st against the pass).
The Vikings are also in line for turnover regression, as their 12 giveaways rank 31st and their three takeaways rank 29th. The Bears have multiple turnovers in all but one game this season.
This is also a Bears team that hadn’t won in a year prior and may not know how to handle following up a win. According to our Action Labs data, home teams coming off a win by 20 or more points are 21-35-2 (37%) against the spread (ATS) since 2016, failing to cover by 1.9 points per game.
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Patriots vs. Raiders
As far as buying low goes, it doesn’t get much lower than the Patriots, who have been outscored 72-3 over the past two games.
The Patriots have spent the past three-plus seasons proving the answer to the Tom Brady or Bill Belichick question shouldn’t even be a question, but history says Belichick’s squad is likely to rebound against the franchise Brady is looking to buy an ownership stake in.
A team scoring no more than three points in back-to-back games is exceedingly rare – it’s happened just eight times since 2003 – but those teams went 7-1 (88%) ATS the following week, covering by 5.8 points per game, per our Action Labs data. If we expand to teams scoring six points or fewer in consecutive games, the ATS record is 23-11 (68%) with an average cover margin of 3.8 points.
Even with back-to-back drubbings and the Raiders coming off a win, the Patriots still rank better than Las Vegas in both offensive DVOA (28th vs. 31st) and defensive DVOA (12th vs. 24th). The main reason the Patriots are in a good position to bounce back is the Raiders defense, which represents a major step down in class from the Cowboys and Saints units they’ve seen over the past two weeks. Couple that with facing the Eagles in Week 1 and the Jets in Week 3, and the Patriots have faced the fifth-toughest slate of opposing defenses according to DVOA.
After surrendering two pick-sixes and sack-fumble-six over the past two weeks, Mac Jones should be able to play a cleaner game against a Raiders defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass and 30th in pressure rate (17.1%).
With two takeaways and 10 giveaways, the Patriots are 31st in turnover differential, but that projects as a wash in this game against a Raiders team that's only one spot better with a minus-7 turnover differential having committed 11 turnovers, which are the second-most in the NFL. Belichick can still scheme defense, and the Patriots defense is the only above-average unit in this game. Belichick’s familiarity with Jimmy Garoppolo, who leads the NFL with seven interceptions despite missing a start, and Josh McDaniels should work in the Patriots' favor here. McDaniels’s offense is yet to muster more than 18 points in a game despite facing the seventh-easiest slate of opposing defenses by DVOA. Their 17 points scored in a Week 1 win over the Broncos that looks worse with each passing week.
Our Action Labs data dates back to 2003, and Belichick is 25-9-1 (63%) ATS coming off a double-digit loss over that span, including 9-6-1 (60%) without Brady and 4-2-1 (67%) with Jones. Over that same span, underdogs coming off a shutout loss are 44-26-3 (63%) ATS, covering by 2.3 points per game.
Pick: Patriots +3 (Bet to +1)
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Lions vs. Buccaneers
This isn’t the classic buy-low/sell-high, as both teams have only one loss, but the Lions’ wins have been more impressive. They upset the Chiefs in Arrowhead in Week 1 and won by margins of 14, 14, and 18 against the Falcons, Packers, and Panthers, respectively.
Meanwhile, none of the Bucs wins check out.
- Tampa Bay beat the Vikings by only 3 points in Week 1 despite a 3-0 edge in turnovers.
- The Bucs' second win came against the Bears, 27-17, back when Justin Fields still had no idea what he was doing. The final score is deceiving, as the Bears had the ball down 20-17 with just over 2 minutes remaining before one of the worst play calls in history led to an easy pick-six for Shaq Barrett.
- Tampa Bay's third win came over a Saints team starting an injured Derek Carr, whose bum shoulder allowed him to do nothing but check the ball down and misfire on deep balls.
Baker Mayfield has acquitted himself well thus far, but he should come back down to earth against a Lions defense that can generate pressure without blitzing, ranking eighth in pressure rate (26.4%) despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate (18.2%). Mayfield is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt when blitzed but just 5.9 yards per attempt when not blitzed this season, which has been a trend throughout his career. The Lions defense is quietly up to third in DVOA and ranks top-eight versus both the run and pass.
The Lions have been a top-five offense in DVOA both on the ground and through the air. They’re averaging 185.0 rushing yards over their past two games and should have success again in this matchup, as Tampa Bay ranks 21st in DVOA against the run and dead last in PFF run-defense grade (44.4).
The Bucs are coming off a bye, but teams in this spot tend to be overrated by the market. Per our Action Labs data, home dogs +6.5 or less coming off of a bye are 26-43-1 (38%) ATS since 2003, failing to cover by 2.0 points per game.
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Eagles vs. Jets
This is a matchup between two talented defenses and two offenses that rank bottom-10 in pace. With Zach Wilson starting at quarterback, the Jets have smartly attempted to shorten games and rank dead last in situation-neutral pace.
The Jets have only let Zach Wilson attempt more than 27 passes three times in his last nine starts dating back to last season, but this is a matchup in which running may be just as futile. The Eagles defense ranks first in DVOA against the run and is allowing an NFL-low 61.2 rushing yards per game. The Jets have been living on explosive Breece Hall runs, but Philly has let up just three runs of 12-plus yards this season, tied for second-fewest.
Compounding matters for the Jets offense is the loss of guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, who was placed on Injured Reserve with an Achilles injury this week. PFF grades Vera-Tucker as the Jets’ best lineman overall (71.7) and in run blocking (82.7).
If the Eagles can build a lead – which is likely as 7-point favorites – they will be content with shortening the game as well, as they lead the league with 100 second-half rushing attempts. And if the Jets can avoid the Eagles getting the ball into brotherly shove territory, they should also be able to force the Eagles to settle for field goals, as they rank third in red-zone defense while the Eagles rank 27th on offense.
According to our Action Labs data, inter-conference unders with a total below 47 and the road team favored are 79-53 (60%) since 2015. That includes a 22-14 (61%) mark with double-digit wind speeds, which the forecast calls for at MetLife this Sunday afternoon.
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