Cowboys vs 49ers Odds, Pick, Prediction Against Spread | Sunday Night Football
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 45 -110o / -110u | +155 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 +100 | 45 -110o / -110u | -175 |
Here's everything you need to know about Cowboys vs 49ers odds, featuring my pick against the spread for Sunday Night Football.
Sunday Night Football for NFL Week 5 delivers a primetime heavyweight match with Cowboys vs. 49ers odds. Currently, the 49ers are 3.5-point favorites (-3.5) vs the Cowboys. The total is set at over/under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined.
The Cowboys will certainly have revenge on their minds after getting eliminated by the 49ers in each of the last two postseasons in a pair of low-scoring affairs decided by one possession.
Each team will step up in class for this one, as the Cowboys and 49ers have played teams with combined records of 4-12 and 5-11, respectively. Neither has faced a team with a current winning record.
Will the Cowboys avenge their previous playoff defeats by picking up a road victory over their nemesis? Or will the 49ers continue their recent domination of Dallas and remain undefeated? Well, something has to give as San Francisco has won 11 straight at home, including the postseason. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have proven to be road warriors of late with a league-best 13-6 ATS record away from home over the last three seasons.
Let's take a closer look at the matchup and the Cowboys vs 49ers odds and get into my Cowboys vs. 49ers pick and betting prediction for Sunday Night Football in Week 5.
Cowboys vs 49ers
Matchup Analysis
Since taking over as the starter last December, quarterback Brock Purdy, who leads the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite, has gone 12-0 in games he finished and started, including the postseason. Over that span, he has thrown 18 touchdowns to only four interceptions to go along with the highest passer rating in the NFL. Thirty for Purdy has also been a regular occurrence, as the 49ers have averaged 32 points per game, reaching at least 30 in 10 of those 12 games.
However, one of those games where San Francisco didn't reach the 30-point mark came against Dallas in the postseason. While Purdy didn't have a bad game, especially in the second half, it was his worst game as a pro. Dallas was able to generate an abundance of pressure, particularly against the right side of the offensive line.
Teams that can't generate pressure against Purdy simply have no chance of slowing down the beautifully schemed Kyle Shanahan offense that has the luxury of explosive weapons all over the field. Unlike his predecessor Jimmy Garappolo, Purdy has more mobility and better pocket presence, making him better equipped to handle pressure, but his numbers still drop off a cliff when opposing defenses can get to him. His metrics when not blitzed nor pressured are extraordinary.
Coming into the season, the biggest questions surrounding this 49ers offense primarily came along the offensive line after losing a pair of starters in Daniel Brunskill and Mike McGlinchey. There were really concerns everywhere, except for left tackle where the ageless Trent Williams once again ranks No.1 among all tackles this season, per PFF.
Bet Dallas vs San Francisco at FanDuel
Elsewhere, Jake Brendel ranks 28th among 36 centers, while Aaron Banks and Spencer Burford both rank outside the top 50 among guards. Right tackle Colton McKivitz also ranks below average through four games in 2023. That's especially concerning since the 49ers haven't really faced a team that can generate pressure like the Cowboys, who lead the NFL in pressure rate despite a league-average blitz rate. You're going to see plenty of different pressure looks from coordinator Dan Quinn, who utilizes the highest man coverage rate in the NFL. San Francisco's previous four opponents all have blitzed at a top-10 rate, but don't sniff the Cowboys in terms of pressure with the Rams and Steelers ranking in the bottom five.
So far this season, among 34 quarterbacks with at least 20 drop backs under pressure, Purdy ranks 26th in Adjusted Completion Percentage and grades out as the 24th ranked overall signal caller, per PFF. Jimmy G ranks dead last in the latter for reference. Purdy has also been a bit fortunate this season with five touchdowns to zero interceptions despite only four big-time throws and five turnover-worthy ones. He's overdue for a costly mistake, especially when under pressure, which has a likelihood of coming against this opportunistic defense.
On the other side of the ball, the San Francisco defense has not quite lived up to its lofty preseason expectations. It only ranks 20th in Success Rate and ninth in EPA per play. The cornerback play outside of Charvarius Ward has been a bit underwhelming, while the run defense has been gashed far too often. Through four games, the 49ers D ranks 28th in Rush EPA and 29th in Rush Success Rate. Meanwhile, the Cowboys get more press about their issues defending the run, but they rank eighth and 28th in those two categories, respectively. Dallas also ranks second overall in EPA per Play and fourth in Success Rate.
If the Cowboys can get Tony Pollard going on the ground, that opens up everything else for Dak Prescott. That includes effective play action and the ability to take deep shots, which teams must do to have success against this 49ers defense that can be susceptible to explosive plays in the passing game.
Cowboys vs 49ers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Last year, I bet the Cowboys catching 3.5 in San Francisco. Unfortunately, they lost 19-12 in a game that was tied 9-9 headed into the fourth quarter, unable to overcome two costly turnovers and an injury to Tony Pollard in a fairly even statistical game.
Before the season, the lookahead line for this game sat at San Francisco -2. Now, that isn't the most efficient market, and we've since gathered four data points from games this season for each squad, but I'm still not too far off from that spread. I just don't think we've learned that much about either team against an easy schedule of opponents.
Therefore, I simply can't pass up getting over a field goal with the road dog.
Dallas slightly upgraded its roster over the offseason and will now have a healthy Tony Pollard running behind an offensive line that could potentially get back to full — or close to full — strength on Sunday night. That's critical against a San Francisco defense that has struggled this season against the run, ranking in the bottom five in both Rush EPA and Rush Success Rate.
That should open up the rest of the offense for Prescott, who I expect to be a bit more aggressive after worrying a bit too much about not throwing interceptions early in the season. Plus, the Cowboys are due for some positive red-zone regression. After leading the league in red-zone TD% in 2022 at 71%, they rank near the bottom of the league at 37% so far this season.
Meanwhile, even without Trevon Diggs, Dallas still sports one of the league's best defenses. Most importantly, Dan Quinn will bring pressure from all over with different blitz packages to exploit the weaknesses along the San Francisco offensive line, which is imperative against Brock Purdy. That may also force George Kittle, who could give Dallas matchup problems in the passing game, to become more of a blocker throughout this game.
The 49ers are one of the most complete teams in the NFL. However, they haven't really been tested en route to their undefeated start. They've looked dominant, but we may have reached the peak of their market value.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have throttled three teams by margins of 20, 35 and 40, but had a complete stinker against the Cardinals. I believe that is weighing too heavily on how the market is viewing them at this moment. I primarily chalked that game up to one of the few stinkers every good team will have in a season. Plus, Dallas had just lost Diggs at corner and had to deal with a number of offensive line injuries.
Ultimately, I just don't see much separation between these teams. I'm happy to have more than a field goal in my back pocket with a complete Cowboys team that should come out with a little extra fire against the team that ended their season in each of the past two postseasons. Expect them to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the 49ers this game, as this is a massive game for their overall psyche and season.
I think this one is close throughout and goes right down to the wire.
