Commanders vs Bears Odds
| Washington Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
Commanders vs. Bears odds have the home team installed as a six-point favorite across the board.
The Bears have been a raging dumpster fire on and off the field this season. Last week, Justin Fields delivered his best career performance as a passer, yet Chicago still found a way to lose to the lowly Broncos. Chicago will once again try to break its losing streak, which sits at 14 (dating back to last season). A loss would tank the Bears to their first 0-5 start since 1997, per ESPN Stats and Info.
Let's try to find our Commanders vs. Bears pick below.
Commanders vs. Bears
Matchup Analysis
When the Bears Have the Ball
Last week, the Bears were up 14 points on the Broncos in the fourth quarter before ultimately blowing the lead and losing by three points
It’s hard to blame Justin Fields – or the offense in general – for the loss, as Fields had one of the better games of his career as a passer, going 28-of-35 for 335 yards and four touchdowns. He has been playing much better of late and a lot of that has to do with his improved chemistry with Chicago’s prized offseason acquisition, DJ Moore.
Fields has targeted Moore at an increased rate every week (4% in Week 1, 18% in Week 2, 21% in Week 3, 26% in Week 4), which resulted in the receiver going off for a 8/131/1 line against Denver.
Sometimes it just takes a new QB-WR pairing a handful of games before clicking. They have already connected on seven plays that have resulted in 20+ yards, something to keep in mind as the Commanders have been vulnerable to the deep ball this year. Washington is allowing 125 yards per game on pass attempts 15+ yards downfield, which is the second-most allowed.
The Commanders have also struggled to contain dual-threat QBs like Fields. They allowed Russell Wilson (56 rushing yards), Josh Allen (46) and Jalen Hurts (36) to pick up yards with their legs when needed.
The Bears might also get back starting LG Teven Jenkins, who has been designated for return. His replacement, Cody Whitehair, has struggled with run blocking and has already allowed 11 pressures on 160 dropbacks this year.
Jenkins allowed only 12 pressures on 304 dropbacks and graded as one of the best run blockers at the position. His return would be massive.
The Bears offense might have an easier time moving the ball against Washington than people think.
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When the Commanders Have the Ball
Sam Howell has crumbled when facing pressure – he ranks 34th (out of 34 QBs) in EPA/play when facing pressure this season. He jumps up to 20th in EPA/play when having a clean pocket.
Therefore, he goes from being the worst quarterback in the league to just a shade below league average if he has a clean pocket to throw from.
He could have a squeaky clean pocket on Thursday night as the Bears have generated the second-lowest pressure rate. Their secondary isn’t talented enough to allow a QB that much time to throw – as a result they rank 31st in DVOA against the pass this year.
Howell is coming off an impressive 290/1/0 game against the Eagles, and I think he should see continued success against the Bears here.
Plus, if the Commanders get a decent-sized lead, they may not lean on the run as much as they did last season. They have been much more pass heavy (second in pass rate over expected) under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy this year.
That’s a factor that could lead to Commanders games going over the total at a higher rate this year until the market adjusts.
Commanders vs. Bears
Betting Picks & Predictions
I’m torn on this one.
My analysis leads to me to believe this will be a higher-scoring game than the public expects.
However, offenses playing on Thursday night tend to be out of sync due to the short week. Also, this game also has a Luck Total grade of -20.2 (the lowest of Week 5), which is a strong signal for the under. Luck Totals of +/-10 after Week 3 are 27-13 (67.5%).
Scott Novak will be the official for the game and he has been the second-most profitable referee for the under since 2020, going 32-19. He tends to call delay of games and false starts at a high rate.
The Bears have been vulnerable to both, and Novak also tends to call penalties on the home team at one of the highest rates every year. It's possible there's less of a home-field advantage when he's the official.
I’m in line with the spread and have conflicting angles in terms of the matchup/data, where I also hesitate with the total, so I think the best thing to do is pass rather than force a play.
Luckily, there will be over 40 different player props to choose from, which gives us a ton of different angles to consider and makes it easier to arrive on a bet I will have confidence in. Here's my favorite prop for this potentially uninspiring game.
