NCAAF Projections
SCHEDULED | OPEN | PRO LINE Projections Our model’s odds for each game, compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade of B or a +3.5% Edge before considering a bet based solely on projections. | CONS. | GRADE | EDGE | BEST ODDS | BET % | MONEY % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11:30 PM S. Alabama USA 303 App State APP 304 | +5.5 -5.5 | +9.9 -9.9 | +7.5 -7.5 | F C+ | -7.5% +2.8% | +7-105 -7.5-104 | 38%61% | 34% 65% |
11:30 PM Stanford STAN 305 Syracuse SYR 306 | +10.5 -10.5 | +8.5 -8.5 | +9.5-110 -8.5-110 | 16%83% | ||||
12:00 AM Illinois ILL 307 Nebraska NEB 308 | +8 -8 | +7.5 -7.5 | +8-110 -7.5-107 | 71%28% | ||||
+13.5 -13.5 | +12.5 -12.5 | +12.5-108 -12-110 | 36%63% | |||||
4:00 PM Kansas KU 327 West Virginia WVU 328 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-110 -2-110 | 39%58% | ||||
4:00 PM Rice RICE 347 Army ARMY 348 | +2 -2 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-108 -6-110 | 47%53% | ||||
4:00 PM Tulane TULN 377 Louisiana UL 378 | -3 +3 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +3-112 | 78%22% | ||||
4:00 PM Charlotte CHA 325 Indiana IU 326 | +23 -23 | +28.5 -28.5 | +28.5-105 -28.5-105 | 27%73% | ||||
4:00 PM Villanova VILL Maryland UMD | +21.5 -21.5 | +17.5 -17.5 | +17.5-109 -17.5-110 | 81%19% | ||||
4:00 PM NC State NCST 333 Clemson CLEM 334 | +7.5 -7.5 | +19 -19 | +19-109 -19.5-105 | 51%49% | ||||
4:00 PM Houston HOU 311 Cincinnati CIN 312 | +7.5 -7.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-105 | 56%44% | ||||
4:00 PM JMU JMU 329 UNC UNC 330 | +10 -10 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-110 -10.5-105 | 51%49% | ||||
-4.5 +4.5 | -6 +6 | -5.5-109 +6+100 | 62%35% | |||||
4:00 PM Marshall MRSH 317 Ohio State OSU 318 | +40.5 -40.5 | +40 -40 | +39.5-105 -40-108 | 14%86% | ||||
4:45 PM Ohio OHIO 343 Kentucky UK 344 | +19 -19 | +20 -20 | +19.5-105 -20-108 | 35%65% | ||||
+5 -5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 33%67% | |||||
6:00 PM Virginia UVA 313 Coastal Car CC 314 | -1 +1 | -3.5 +3.5 | -3.5-110 +3.5-108 | 44%56% | ||||
6:00 PM Utah State USU 345 Temple TEM 346 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-110 +6.5-110 | 89%11% | ||||
+24 -24 | +24 -24 | +23.5-106 -24-110 | 48%52% | |||||
+17.5 -17.5 | +21.5 -21.5 | +21-108 -21.5-105 | 36%64% | |||||
7:00 PM Eastern Wash EW Nevada NEV | +7.5 -7.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9.5-109 | |||||
+8 -8 | +6 -6 | +5.5-102 -5.5-112 | 25%75% | |||||
7:30 PM Arkansas ARK 365 Auburn AUB 366 | +3.5 -3.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2-112 | 67%33% | ||||
7:30 PM USC USC 387 Michigan MICH 388 | +8.5 -8.5 | -5.5 +5.5 | -6+100 +5.5-108 | 74%26% | ||||
7:30 PM Rutgers RUT 349 VA Tech VT 350 | +5.5 -5.5 | +3.5 -3.5 | +3.5-110 -3.5-108 | 28%72% | ||||
7:30 PM UCLA UCLA 389 LSU LSU 390 | +20.5 -20.5 | +23.5 -23.5 | +23.5-108 -24.5+102 | 46%52% | ||||
7:30 PM Buffalo BUFF 321 N. Illinois NIU 322 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5 -13.5 | +13.5-108 -14-105 | 71%29% | ||||
7:30 PM Youngstown St YSU Pittsburgh PITT | +24 -24 | +25.5 -25.5 | +25.5-110 -25.5-108 | 53%47% | ||||
7:30 PM Houston Christian HB UTSA UTSA | +35.5 -35.5 | +35.5 -35.5 | +35.5-108 -35.5-110 | |||||
7:30 PM Central Conn CCSU UMass MASS | +21 -21 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-110 -19.5-105 | |||||
7:30 PM Arizona St ASU 383 Texas Tech TTU 384 | +3.5 -3.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | 54%46% | ||||
7:30 PM Memphis MEM 397 Navy NAVY 398 | -11 +11 | -9.5 +9.5 | -9-112 +9.5-105 | 79%21% | ||||
+51.5 -51.5 | +49 -49 | +48.5+100 -48.5-108 | 81%19% | |||||
7:30 PM GA Tech GT 331 Louisville LOU 332 | +9.5 -9.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +11-110 -10.5-108 | 52%48% | ||||
7:30 PM Miami (OH) M-OH 393 Notre Dame ND 394 | +24.5 -24.5 | +28 -28 | +27.5-102 -28-107 | 14%86% | ||||
8:00 PM Utah UTAH 379 OK State OKST 380 | -2 +2 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5+100 -2.5-114 | 24%76% | ||||
8:00 PM Duke DUKE 405 Middle Tenn MTSU 406 | -13.5 +13.5 | -14.5 +14.5 | -15-108 +14.5-110 | 89%11% | ||||
8:15 PM Vanderbilt VAN 385 Missouri MIZ 386 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5 -20.5 | +20.5-110 -20.5-105 | 53%47% | ||||
9:00 PM TCU TCU 369 SMU SMU 370 | -1.5 +1.5 | -3 +3 | -3-105 +2.5+102 | 91%9% | ||||
9:00 PM UTEP UTEP 355 Colorado St CSU 356 | +11.5 -11.5 | +9.5 -9.5 | +9.5-110 -9-108 | 62%38% | ||||
10:00 PM E. Carolina ECU 399 Liberty LIB 400 | +7.5 -7.5 | +6 -6 | +6.5-115 -6-108 | 56%44% | ||||
10:00 PM Monmouth MNM FIU FIU | +14 -14 | +14 -14 | +13.5-105 -14-110 | |||||
11:00 PM FL Atlantic FAU 401 UConn UCONN 402 | -2.5 +2.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | 40%60% | ||||
11:00 PM Toledo TOL 409 W. Kentucky WKU 410 | +1.5 -1.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-110 +2.5-105 | |||||
11:00 PM Tulsa TLSA 403 LA Tech LT 404 | +1 -1 | +2.5 -2.5 | +3-113 -2.5-110 | 20%80% | ||||
11:00 PM Wyoming WYO 381 North Texas UNT 382 | +6 -6 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-115 -7.5+100 | 29%71% | ||||
+9 -9 | +16.5 -16.5 | +16.5-110 -16-110 | 60%40% | |||||
11:00 PM Florida A&M FAMU Troy TROY | +27.5 -27.5 | +23 -23 | +23-110 -23.5-105 | 73%27% | ||||
11:00 PM California CAL 339 Florida St FSU 340 | +6.5 -6.5 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2.5-105 -2.5-110 | 76%24% | ||||
11:00 PM Miami (FL) MIA 335 S. Florida USF 336 | -18 +18 | -17 +17 | -17-108 +16.5+100 | 83%17% | ||||
11:00 PM Northwestern NW 375 Washington WASH 376 | +8.5 -8.5 | +10.5 -10.5 | +10.5-108 -10.5-102 | 9%91% | ||||
11:30 PM Tennessee TENN 371 Oklahoma OU 372 | +3.5 -3.5 | -7 +7 | -7.5-104 +7+100 | 81%19% | ||||
11:30 PM Iowa IOWA 337 Minnesota MINN 338 | -3.5 +3.5 | -2.5 +2.5 | -2.5-109 +2.5-105 | 88%12% | ||||
11:30 PM Akron AKR 323 S. Carolina SC 324 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5 -27.5 | +27.5-102 -27.5-108 | 34%66% | ||||
11:30 PM Bowling Green BGSU 395 Texas A&M TA&M 396 | +24.5 -24.5 | +22.5 -22.5 | +22.5-110 -22-109 | 62%38% | ||||
11:45 PM GA Southern GASO 367 Ole Miss MISS 368 | +31 -31 | +36.5 -36.5 | +35.5-105 -36.5-105 | 16%84% | ||||
12:00 AM Baylor BAY 357 Colorado COLO 358 | +2.5 -2.5 | +2 -2 | +2-110 -1.5-110 | 46%54% | ||||
12:00 AM Michigan St MSU 319 Boston Col BC 320 | +5.5 -5.5 | +6.5 -6.5 | +6.5-105 -6.5-110 | 46%54% | ||||
12:00 AM LA-Monroe ULM 373 Texas TEX 374 | +48 -48 | +44.5 -44.5 | +44.5-105 -44.5-107 | 17%83% | ||||
12:30 AM Purdue PUR 363 Oregon St ORST 364 | +5.5 -5.5 | +4.5 -4.5 | +5.5-115 -4-112 | 23%77% | ||||
12:30 AM Fresno State FRES 351 New Mexico UNM 352 | -17 +17 | -14 +14 | -14-110 +13.5-102 | 67%33% | ||||
+31.5 -31.5 | +41.5 -41.5 | +41.5-105 -41.5-110 | ||||||
2:30 AM K State KSU 353 BYU BYU 354 | -7.5 +7.5 | -6.5 +6.5 | -6-113 +6.5-110 | 70%30% | ||||
4:00 AM N. Iowa UNI Hawaii HAW | +8.5 -8.5 | +7.5 -7.5 | +7.5-109 -7.5-102 | 33%67% |
A lot of factors are considered by expert NCAAF bettors, both in terms of on-field performance and the betting market. For example, many smart bettors are keenly aware of line movement and which sportsbooks post the best prices. But one of the most important factors is building out NCAAF projections that can be measured against lines in the market.
How NCAAF Projections Work
There are many ways to build NCAAF projections, be it with a statistical model, using the betting market as a guide, or something else. And even within a statistical model, college football handicappers can vary in how they approach building it, focusing on team performance, player performance, or perhaps a hybrid blend of both.
At The Action Network, our NCAAF projections are projection blends of several of our key betting experts. How they approach their final numbers on a game might vary, but the blend of those projections work to create a better, composite number that is our best reflection of what to expect in a game.
We project the three big markets in NCAAF betting -- spreads, over/unders, and moneylines -- and do so for every game in each season. Within our PRO Report -- part of our PRO subscription -- we'll measure those projections against lines for every U.S. book, so you can easily spot edges and potential bets.
A lot of our experts rely on advanced statistics to build their models and get their numbers on games, and of course it's incredibly important when building college football projections to be aware of news and injuries.
The most important position in the football is quarterback, and it's not unreasonable to see a line move 4-5 points or more if a star is suddenly ruled out on a Saturday morning. Other positions are less valuable to the spread, which might surprise a casual gambler. Notably, running backs -- even the very best ones in the country-- rarely move betting lines if they're unable to play for whatever reason.
Using those advanced stats, along with a variety of other important factors like recent play, advantages for a team on offense/defense/special teams, player values, news, predicting home-field advantage and rest situations is how our experts land on the numbers you see above.
The Action Network's NCAAF Projections
Our NCAAF experts will provide consensus projections for every college football game's spread, moneyline, and over/under. On this page you'll then find those projections compared to the market in two ways: 1) the edge, which is the percentage difference between a sportsbook's odds vs. our projections and 2) a letter grade based on that edge.
The two comparisons are correlated, so don't stress about which you use. We show the edge to be transparent for bettors, and some advanced bettors will bet based on the Kelly criterion, which adjusts bet sizes based on projected edge. But if you just want to quickly eye things, the "A" through "F" grades are based on those edge numbers and might be easier to understand for novice bettors. Both comparisons are color-coded with the highest edges and "A" grades given a green coloring while negative edges and "F" grades will have red markings.
Spread projections will be compared to the consensus line in the market, but of course, spread numbers will vary based on the book, so in reality, sometimes your edge can be higher if you find a good number.
If you're unfamiliar, spread bets are one of the most common wagers on college football: They're simply bets on the margin of victory. Say the Georgia Bulldogs have a spread of -6.5 vs. the Florida Gators. In that situation, a spread bet on Georgia would cash if they won by a touchdown or more. A bet on Alabama at +6.5 would cash if they won the game outright or merely lost by six or fewer points.
Note that key numbers are important in projecting an edge in college football. Key numbers are just numbers that a game is likelier to land on because of the scoring in football: A 2-0 game is much less likely to occur than a 7-0 game. That means the difference between 6.5 and 7 on the spread is much more important than the difference between 12.5 and 13. The way we grade our NCAAF projections vs. the consensus accounts for these key numbers.
Key numbers are also important for totals, or over/unders, which are bets on the combined point output in a game. For a new bettor, you'll see a total number posted at a sportsbook and you'll be able to bet the over or under. Say the Oregon Ducks vs. Oklahoma Sooners game has a total of 64 points: Bettors on the under would cash if the teams combined for 63 or fewer points; over bettors would win at 65 or more.
Key numbers are also important in totals betting because, again, scoring isn't by ones, twos, or threes like it is for, say, basketball. Since touchdowns are worth seven points apiece (assuming the extra point is made), total numbers in multiples of sevens and threes are more likely to occur.
You don't have to worry about key numbers in moneyline betting, which is a common wager type just on which team will win the game outright. Everything here depends on the likelihood of a team winning (the odds a book will post) vs. how likely our NCAAF projections say that team is to win.
It's easiest if you think about moneyline odds in terms of $10 or $100 increments. Say the Texas Tech Red Raiders are +250 on the moneyline vs. the Clemson Tigers, who are -290. If you bet $10 on Texas Tech and they won, you would receive $25 in profit. A bet on Clemson, who are favored, would require $29 bet to win $10 in the event of a victory.