Friday. Night. Lights.
There's something special about watching college football under the lights, and Week 4's slate is no different.
First, we have a cross-country ACC matchup as the Syracuse Orange Orange host the Stanford Cardinal to kick off the night at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Then, at 8 p.m. ET, the No. 24 Illinois Fighting Illini make the trip to Lincoln to face the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a ranked Big Ten matchup.
And to close it all out on the West Coast, the Pac-2's Washington State Cougars will welcome in the San Jose State Spartans of the Mountain West.
There's plenty of action to break down, so let's not waste time and dive into the NCAAF odds and picks for Friday, September 20.
NCAAF Odds, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Friday's slate of NCAAF games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Syracuse vs. Stanford Pick
By Mark Harris
Friday's college football schedule kicks off with an ACC showdown as the Syracuse Orange host the Stanford Cardinal at 7:30 p.m. ET. The game can be seen live on ESPN.
Let's dive right into my Stanford vs. Syracuse prediction.
Stanford Cardinal
Maybe one day we'll get used to Stanford playing in the ACC, but that day hasn't arrived yet.
Regardless of its conference, the Cardinal appear to be of similar quality as last year, which is to say they aren't very good. Stanford opened its season with a 34-27 home loss to TCU, then beat FCS Cal Poly two weeks ago, so this team hasn't proved it's any better than last season.
Junior Ashton Daniels is a solid college quarterback, but probably not much more than that. He's completed 62.1% of his throws for 384 yards, three touchdowns and one pick, leading a Stanford offense that ranks 61st in passing success rate.
Big-bodied wideout Elic Ayomanor is Stanford's go-to pass-catcher with 10 receptions for 147 yards.
While Stanford has an average passing game, it can't run the ball worth a lick. It is averaging 3.5 yards per carry (this is after playing an FCS team, by the way) and ranks 99th in Rush Success Rate and 113th in Rushing EPA.
Defensively, it's hard to get a grasp on the Cardinal because they've played two games, and one was against Cal Poly.
Stanford is essentially inactive in the transfer portal, so it's fair to assume its defense is only marginally better than the unit that allowed 37.7 points per game last year.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord is turning into another transfer portal success story.
It turns out that being the guy who follows C.J. Stroud is an unenviable position. Despite throwing for 3,170 yards, 24 touchdowns and six picks in 2023, McCord was not guaranteed the starting job at Ohio State, so he made his way to Syracuse.
That decision has worked out for McCord. He has thrown four touchdowns in each of his first two games with the Orange and is completing 69.4% of his passes for 735 yards and eight touchdowns.
His eight touchdown passes are tied for 11th in college football, even though he's played just two games. His production is the main reason why Syracuse is sixth in passing success rate and eighth in EPA per dropback.
The Orange wouldn't have beaten a pretty good Georgia Tech team without him, especially since Syracuse is a bad running team at 105th in rushing success rate. Oronde Gadsden II and Trebor Pena have combined for seven touchdown catches as McCord's top targets.
Although Syracuse's defense isn't awful, it's not a plus unit either. It is giving up 25 points per game and has one interception and four sacks through two games. It's also 113th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
That leaky rush defense will catch up to the Orange at some point this season, but Stanford's meager run game probably won't be able to exploit it.
Stanford vs Syracuse Prediction
So, let me get this straight: Stanford has to fly all the way across the country for a Friday night game against a Syracuse team with a red-hot quarterback?
Yeah, give me the Orange to cover.
Syracuse's flaws will show up to some degree in this game, but it can make up for it with a strong passing attack, and I just don't see Stanford being good enough to keep up.
Pick: Syracuse -8.5 (Play to -9)
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Nebraska vs. Illinois Pick
By John Feltman
It's been all fun and games through the first few weeks of the college football season, but Week 4 is when things start to kick into high gear.
On Friday night, we have a doozy of a Big Ten matchup between undefeated teams lined up in Lincoln, Nebraska. The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) on Sept. 20 with an 8 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Both of these teams are off to impressive 3-0 starts and are coming off cupcake matchups last week. Oddly enough, both teams also covered the spread by the hook in their respective matchups the week before.
Oddsmakers have the Cornhuskers as 7.5-point home favorites, with the over/under sitting at 42.5. Let's dive into my Illinois vs. Nebraska predictions and college football picks for Friday night under the lights.
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema may have been on the hot seat entering the season, and it would've only gotten hotter if the Illini didn't have a successful season.
But so far, his group has shown up big time. The Illini are 3-0, including an impressive win over Kansas as short underdogs two weeks ago. However, that victory may look less impressive after seeing what UNLV did to the Jayhawks last week.
Friday night is by far Illinois' biggest test of the season, and if it pulls off an upset, all of these uncertainties will be put to bed.
Let's start with the offense, which was projected to be an improved unit entering the season. The Illini rank 28th in Passing Success Rate and inside the top 40 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
The running game has yet to get it going consistently, ranking 91st in Rushing Success Rate. The good news is they face a Huskers defense that's 105th in that area on the defensive side of the ball, so they may still find some success on the ground here.
However, the offensive line, which comes into this game 101st in Havoc Allowed, still has significant questions. The biggest key to the Illini's success is holding up in the offensive trench against a terrific Huskers defensive front.
Quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been mistake-free through the air thus far, holding a 6:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Huskers field an excellent secondary, and they showed that off against Colorado's Air Raid led by Shedeur Sanders two weeks ago.
Altmeyer will be tested by Nebraska's secondary, and if the offensive line doesn't hold up, he may be under duress for most of the game. The Illini are also a snail on offense, so there could be limited possessions to capitalize on.
The Illini defense ranks 58th in Rushing Success Rate and 39th in Passing Success Rate. The secondary has produced elite NFL talent over the past couple of years, so it's a position group that consistently produces talent on the field.
The biggest takeaway for the defense its ability to limit quality drives and stand firm in the red zone. The Illini rank top-25 in both Defensive Quality and Finishing Drives.
They forced Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels into multiple mistakes two weeks ago, and they must repeat that performance against Nebraska's Dylan Raiola.
Ultimately, this is a tough matchup for the Illini, and I wonder if their offensive line can hold up.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Raiola has taken the nation by storm with his early-season success and a hairstyle like Patrick Mahomes. He also wears No. 15, and his Mahomes-esque pre-game rituals and mannerisms are exploding all over social media.
This side by side of Dylan Raiola and Patrick Mahomes is WILD 😳
(Via TT/Tanner Gatlin) pic.twitter.com/5TYmGUAVqc
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 10, 2024
I'm not ready to crown Raiola the next Mahomes, but he has lived up to his five-star rating thus far. However, Friday night's game against a strong Illini defense is his biggest test thus far.
The Huskers were impressive in their win over Colorado two weeks ago, completely dismantling Sanders at quarterback, as well as the rest of the offense.
The offense they face on Friday is not nearly as explosive, but the Illini have been flawless in their first three victories.
Nebraska's offense enters the matchup in the top 40 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, and it ranks 40th in Line Yards. The offensive line has gotten a solid push thus far, and it'll be going up against an Illini defensive trench that ranks outside the top 85 in that category.
It's also worth noting that Nebraska ranks 28th in Havoc Allowed, and even though they bullied the Buffaloes two weeks ago, Illinois boasts the best defensive line it's faced all season.
Like the Illini, the Huskers are slow-paced on offense, entering the game outside the top 100 in seconds per play. They also run the ball 53% of the time, but that statistic could be skewed due to playing uncompetitive matchups thus far.
As good as the Huskers have been offensively, they've struggled to finish drives. They rank 94th nationally in that category, which doesn't bode well against an Illini defense that has held up strong past the 40-yard line.
The offense should be able to move the ball at times, but I wonder if it'll find ways to close out its quality drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. But on the defensive side of the ball, that's precisely what it's prevented.
Defensively, the Huskers are in the top 20 in both Finishing and Quality Drives and rank 10th nationally in PFF tackle grading. They've been slightly exposed through the ground game, but their secondary comes in at 42nd in Passing Success Rate.
I have a good feeling the Huskers will win, but their inability to defend the rush and finish drives offensively makes me wonder if they can cover the number against a strong Illini defense.
Illinois vs. Nebraska Prediction
To me, the best play for the matchup is the under. As of writing, the number is hovering above a key number of 42, so I would take it at 43.5.
It would've been a dream to get 45 or better here, but I don't believe that'll appear in the market again with sharp money flooding in on the under.
The offensive line struggles for the Illini will show up here, and I predict their offense will have a hard time generating consistent scoring drives.
The Husker offense also faces a tough test, and they have room to improve in terms of finishing drives with touchdowns. To make matters worse, the Illinois defense has been stingy when opponents have crossed the 40-yard line thus far.
With both offenses moving at a snail's pace, there should be a ton of clock moving throughout the game. I would lock this in before the total drops any further.
Pick: Under 43 (Play to 42.5)
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Washington State vs. San Jose State Pick
By John Feltman
Who would've thought at the beginning of the season that Friday night's matchup between the San Jose State Spartans (3-0) and Washington State Cougars (3-0) would be a battle between two undefeated squads?
The Cougars are coming off an Apple Cup victory over Washington last weekend and now have to shift focus to their matchup against the Spartans quickly.
Meanwhile, the Spartans are a surprising 3-0 with a solid win over Air Force in their conference opener. This is their first real test of the season against a team coming from a power conference last season.
Washington State enters as a -12 favorite with an over/under of 56.
Let's dive deeper into my San Jose State vs. Washington State predictions and college football picks for Friday, Sept. 20.
San Jose State Spartans
The Spartans entered the year full of uncertainty, and many depicted them as one of the worst FBS programs in the country. We'll find out if that take is accurate on Friday night — and we should find out rather quickly.
The biggest reason for their success thus far has been wide receiver Nick Nash. Nash is by far the Spartans' biggest weapon, as he has 34 catches on 45 targets thus far in 2024.
Nash also has six receiving touchdowns and one passing score. The offense flows through him, so they'll be in serious trouble if he can't get anything going.
It's tough to figure out what to make of some of San Jose State's opponents. Thus far, SJSU has faced Sacramento State, Air Force and Kennesaw State, which tells me we should take its metrics with a grain of salt.
First, the Spartans rank 127th in Rushing Success Rate and 134th in Line Tards. That's atrocious, given the teams they've faced thus far.
However, they rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate, as quarterback Emmett Brown has been lighting it up through the air. He has a 9:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio through three games.
The Cougs' secondary hasn't been great this season, so the Spartans should be able to maintain success through the air. However, it'll be a step up in talent and competition for Brown, especially since the Cougs are 24th in PFF coverage grading.
San Jose State's numbers are also substantial defensively. But given the teams it's faced, I can't take the metrics seriously.
The Spartans rank top-50 in the following defensive categories:
- Line Yards (22nd)
- Passing Success Rate (15th)
- Havoc (41st)
- Finishing Drives (48th)
- Quality Drives (20th)
- PFF Tackling (40th)
- PFF Coverage (27th)
Looking at these stats without context would tell a story about the defense being vital to this team. But remember, take these statistics with a grain of salt.
The Cougars offense is nothing special, but I'm still determining how legit the Spartans are on the defensive side of the ball. I believe in the Brown-Nash duo, so they should generate offense through the air.
Washington State Cougars
Washington State was fortunate to leave the Apple Cup victorious. The Cougs finished last week's game with a -1.54 Total EPA, whereas the Huskies finished with a mark of 3.51.
I didn't see anything from the Cougars that made me think they were the better team, so I wouldn't put too much stock into their 3-0 record. Both defenses seemed to be getting gashed in that game, but the offenses couldn't capitalize on the scoreboard.
Wazzu's metrics are underwhelming considering its undefeated start. It ranks 80th in Rushing Success Rate and 60th in Passing Success Rate, but on paper, the Spartans' secondary has been a shutdown unit thus far.
The Cougars will find success offensively in the matchup, especially with quarterback John Mateer. Mateer has been excellent thus far despite his two interceptions. To counter that, he's thrown seven touchdowns.
He's also a dual-threat who has run for 335 yards and added four scores on the ground.
There's no questioning the potential ceiling of this Cougs offense, but from what I saw last week, I'll have to get another data point to have a better idea of what to expect moving forward.
The offense ranks top-60 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, so I expect them to cap possessions with touchdowns rather than settling for field goals.
Defensively, the Cougs are a big question mark in this matchup. They could be in trouble against the duo of Brown and Nash.
Wazzu sits 120th in Defensive Havoc and outside the top 75 in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Quality Drives Allowed. The Spartans have played cupcakes thus far, but there's no denying some of their offensive talent.
The Cougars' special teams have been among the worst in the nation, ranking outside the top 125. They're also 128th in PFF tackling, so there are many problems that need to be solved.
San Jose State vs Washington State Prediction
I can't trust the Spartans because of their weak strength of schedule. These metrics look appealing, but it's not wise to trust them in this instance.
One thing I am sure about is that both of these offenses are going to find success. For that reason, I like the over in the matchup.
A lot of sharp money has started to pour in on the total at 55.5, so I would advise grabbing that number before it reaches 56.
These offenses are also lightning quick, ranking inside the top 40 in seconds per play. Many are overrating the Spartans defense and must realize the competition they've faced thus far.
This is an over play for me and one of my favorite bets of the entire weekend.
Pick: Over 55.5 (Play to 56)
