Illinois vs Nebraska Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | +265 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | -330 |
It's been all fun and games through the first few weeks of the college football season, but Week 4 is when things start to kick into high gear.
On Friday night, we have a doozy of a Big Ten matchup between undefeated teams lined up in Lincoln, Nebraska. The Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0) host the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) on Sept. 20 with an 8 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
Both of these teams are off to impressive 3-0 starts and are coming off cupcake matchups last week. Oddly enough, both teams also covered the spread by the hook in their respective matchups the week before.
Oddsmakers have the Cornhuskers as 7.5-point home favorites, with the over/under sitting at 42.5. Let's dive into my Illinois vs. Nebraska predictions and college football picks for Friday night under the lights.
Illinois Fighting Illini Football
Illinois head coach Bret Bielema may have been on the hot seat entering the season, and it would've only gotten hotter if the Illini didn't have a successful season.
But so far, his group has shown up big time. The Illini are 3-0, including an impressive win over Kansas as short underdogs two weeks ago. However, that victory may look less impressive after seeing what UNLV did to the Jayhawks last week.
Friday night is by far Illinois' biggest test of the season, and if it pulls off an upset, all of these uncertainties will be put to bed.
Let's start with the offense, which was projected to be an improved unit entering the season. The Illini rank 28th in Passing Success Rate and inside the top 40 in Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.
The running game has yet to get it going consistently, ranking 91st in Rushing Success Rate. The good news is they face a Huskers defense that's 105th in that area on the defensive side of the ball, so they may still find some success on the ground here.
However, the offensive line, which comes into this game 101st in Havoc Allowed, still has significant questions. The biggest key to the Illini's success is holding up in the offensive trench against a terrific Huskers defensive front.
Quarterback Luke Altmeyer has been mistake-free through the air thus far, holding a 6:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Huskers field an excellent secondary, and they showed that off against Colorado's Air Raid led by Shedeur Sanders two weeks ago.
Altmeyer will be tested by Nebraska's secondary, and if the offensive line doesn't hold up, he may be under duress for most of the game. The Illini are also a snail on offense, so there could be limited possessions to capitalize on.
The Illini defense ranks 58th in Rushing Success Rate and 39th in Passing Success Rate. The secondary has produced elite NFL talent over the past couple of years, so it's a position group that consistently produces talent on the field.
The biggest takeaway for the defense its ability to limit quality drives and stand firm in the red zone. The Illini rank top-25 in both Defensive Quality and Finishing Drives.
They forced Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels into multiple mistakes two weeks ago, and they must repeat that performance against Nebraska's Dylan Raiola.
Ultimately, this is a tough matchup for the Illini, and I wonder if their offensive line can hold up.
Nebraska Cornhuskers Football
Raiola has taken the nation by storm with his early-season success and a hairstyle like Patrick Mahomes. He also wears No. 15, and his Mahomes-esque pre-game rituals and mannerisms are exploding all over social media.
This side by side of Dylan Raiola and Patrick Mahomes is WILD 😳
(Via TT/Tanner Gatlin) pic.twitter.com/5TYmGUAVqc
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 10, 2024
I'm not ready to crown Raiola the next Mahomes, but he has lived up to his five-star rating thus far. However, Friday night's game against a strong Illini defense is his biggest test thus far.
The Huskers were impressive in their win over Colorado two weeks ago, completely dismantling Sanders at quarterback, as well as the rest of the offense.
The offense they face on Friday is not nearly as explosive, but the Illini have been flawless in their first three victories.
Nebraska's offense enters the matchup in the top 40 in Rushing and Passing Success Rate, and it ranks 40th in Line Yards. The offensive line has gotten a solid push thus far, and it'll be going up against an Illini defensive trench that ranks outside the top 85 in that category.
It's also worth noting that Nebraska ranks 28th in Havoc Allowed, and even though they bullied the Buffaloes two weeks ago, Illinois boasts the best defensive line it's faced all season.
Like the Illini, the Huskers are slow-paced on offense, entering the game outside the top 100 in seconds per play. They also run the ball 53% of the time, but that statistic could be skewed due to playing uncompetitive matchups thus far.
As good as the Huskers have been offensively, they've struggled to finish drives. They rank 94th nationally in that category, which doesn't bode well against an Illini defense that has held up strong past the 40-yard line.
The offense should be able to move the ball at times, but I wonder if it'll find ways to close out its quality drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. But on the defensive side of the ball, that's precisely what it's prevented.
Defensively, the Huskers are in the top 20 in both Finishing and Quality Drives and rank 10th nationally in PFF tackle grading. They've been slightly exposed through the ground game, but their secondary comes in at 42nd in Passing Success Rate.
I have a good feeling the Huskers will win, but their inability to defend the rush and finish drives offensively makes me wonder if they can cover the number against a strong Illini defense.
Illinois vs Nebraska
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Nebraska match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 91 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 56 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 101 | 17 | |
| Finishing Drives | 38 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 28 | 7 | |
Nebraska Offense vs. Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 24 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 53 | 10 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 29 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 33 | 115 |
| Middle 8 | 20 | 28 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.1 (128) | 29.3 (104) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (46) | 53% (54) |
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Betting Pick & Prediction
To me, the best play for the matchup is the under. As of writing, the number is hovering above a key number of 42, so I would take it at 43.5.
It would've been a dream to get 45 or better here, but I don't believe that'll appear in the market again with sharp money flooding in on the under.
The offensive line struggles for the Illini will show up here, and I predict their offense will have a hard time generating consistent scoring drives.
The Husker offense also faces a tough test, and they have room to improve in terms of finishing drives with touchdowns. To make matters worse, the Illinois defense has been stingy when opponents have crossed the 40-yard line thus far.
With both offenses moving at a snail's pace, there should be a ton of clock moving throughout the game. I would lock this in before the total drops any further.
Pick: Under 43.5 · Play to 42.5
