The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds begin their series on Monday in Atlanta with a pair of All-Star hurlers taking the mound — Reynaldo Lopez and Hunter Greene face off on Monday, and I’m hunting the total, particularly the over.
Both starting pitchers were all-stars in 2024, so why is over eight runs the play? Let's take a look at my same game parlay (SGP) for Reds vs. Braves on Monday, July 22.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Reds vs Braves MLB Parlay: Monday SGP Picks (July 22)
- Over 8 (-102)
- Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
- Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+160)
Parlay Odds: +700 (bet365)
Over 8 (-102)
Reds vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
Well, both pitchers should face some regression in this second half of the season. Lopez’s downfall began in his final start of the first half, allowing 11 hits in six innings versus the Padres. Greene is always a bit hit-or-miss depending on if he’s commanding the strike zone.
Lopez boasts a spectacular 1.88 ERA, which brought him an All-Star nod, but his 4.24 xERA and 3.08 FIP is a tad concerning. Lopez evaded regression for a while, but it’s hard to ignore the peripherals that rarely lie.
One of the major roadblocks for Lopez is issues throwing strikes, and walking 3.2 per nine innings. His outings can be on the shorter side if walks haunt him, leading way to a fairly mediocre Braves relief corps.
On the opposing side, Greene turned in a pair of dazzling outings before the All-Star breakout, limiting the Tigers and Rockies to one total run. I don’t expect Greene to charge through the Braves lineup like the Tigers and Rockies. Those are two of the worst lineup in baseball, and the Braves have a few more big boppers to get through.
The one difference in Greene that turned him into an All-Star is limiting the long ball — he sacrificed a few ticks on his K/9 and cut his HR/9 in half to a 0.82 HR/9. The biggest issue Greene faces is throwing strikes and walking 3.67 batters per nine.
In July, the Reds offense has been among the best in MLB, ranking seventh with a 116 wRC+. Elly De LA Cruz is a consistent source of production (148 wRC+), but the difference has been the emergence of Tyler Stephenson (154 wRC+ in July), along with Spencer Steer (148 wRC+) and Jonathan India (141 wRC+.) If the Reds offense continues hitting, maybe the front office will change their tune and buy instead of sell at the deadline.
On the opposite end, the Braves offense hasn’t done well in July. They rank 23rd in wRC+ (93) and have two severe problems — they don’t walk (5.7 BB%) and strike out a ridiculous amount (26% K-rate.) Seeing the Braves offense turn into a legendarily good offense in 2023, only to be one of the biggest disappointments in recent memory is a bit unexpected — even with Ronald Acuna’s injury.
Only two batters have hit at an above-average clip this month — Marcell Ozuna (192 wRC+) and Austin Riley (172 wRC+). They need more from Matt Olson and Jarred Kelenic in this matchup to set the tone in the upper-half of the lineup.
Hunter Greene Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
Reds vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
Yes, I know I already talked about Greene’s strikeout rate dipping to career-low numbers, but a 10 K/9 would be the career-high for many pitchers.
I'm a bit surprised Greene's number is just 6.5 for this one. He should have success against this Braves lineup and he just punched out 8+ batters in back-to-back starts.
This is more of playing into the Braves offensive issues than anything else. I still think they can get to Greene a bit even if he reaches the seven-strikeout number needed to win this prop.
The only Braves hitter with a lower than 20% K Rate in July is Ozzie Albies, and now he’s hurt. So, the Braves lineup could face some real problems when facing Greene.
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+160)
Reds vs. Braves | 7:20 p.m. ET
Elly De La Cruz is the most electrifying player in baseball, largely due to his game-breaking speed. If Elly gets on base, he’s probably running — he’s collected 48 bags already and snagged a bag in two of three games back from the All-Star break.
In short, if Elly reaches base, odds are he’s running and probably advancing safely.
It doesn’t hurt that Braves starting catcher Sean Murphy throws out 20% of potential base stealers, putting him right around the league-average marker along with below-average pop time. Opposing catchers need to throw an absolute dart to catch De La Cruz, and Murphy’s arm might lack the speed to neutralize the Reds star shortstop.
