MLB Props
MLB player props are growing in popularity as more and more sportsbooks start to offer bigger menus of betting options.
Here, you'll find odds comparisons for a variety of MLB props, the biggest edges against our projections, and some of our experts' favorite prop picks of the day.
Here are some of the most popular MLB props you can expect to handicap and bet.
Strikeouts
Sportsbooks will offer the total strikeouts for each starting pitcher in the game, adjusted for each pitcher's ability and the team they're facing. Let's use an example from Mets vs. Yankees.
- Max Scherzer: 8.5 (over +115, under -148)
- Domingo German: 3.5 (over -174, under +134)
If you bet Scherzer over 8.5 strikeouts, he'll need 9 K's, and you'll get paid $1.15 for every dollar risked (because it's +115). If you want to bet the under, you'd need to risk $1.48 for every dollar you want to win.
The opposite is true for German. His total is only 3.5, but you have to pay handsomely ($1.74 for every $1 you want to win) to take the over.
Home Runs
Some sportsbooks will give you two options when betting player home runs, while others will only give you the "yes" option.
Every player is more likely to not hit a home run in a single game, so you're always getting plus-money on home runs. Take this example from BetRivers for Cardinals vs. Blue Jays:
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. HR: +360 ($10 wins $36)
- Vlad Jr. no HR: -530 ($53 means $10)
FanDuel on the other hand only offers the player to hit a home run, which it also priced at Guerrero +360. You just can't lay the juice with the "no" side.
Guerrero homered in 42 of his 161 games in 2021, just 26% of the time. Even for a player with that much power, that's not a whole lot of games, which is why you'll see him offered at north of +300.
To Record a Hit
Certain sportsbooks offer this prop differently. Some books list it as "to get a hit" while others offer over or under 0.5 or 1.5 hits.
The line will correlate with how likely that player is to get a hit, of course. In that Mets-Yankees game, we see the following lines.
- Aaron Judge: -225 to get a hit, +165 no hit
- Aaron Hicks: -110 to get a hit, -110 no hit
- Starling Marte: -270 to get a hit, +195 no hit
DraftKings is saying that Judge and Marte have a 70% chance or better to record a single hit, while Hicks is about 50/50.
Pitcher Outs
Pitcher outs has become a popular way to support or fade a pitcher without considering strikeouts. Sportsbooks will offer over or under on a set number of outs, which translates to how many innings they throw.
For example, Nathan Eovaldi's outs line for Red Sox-Guardians is set at 17.5. That means if he pitches 6 full innings, he goes over, because that's 18 outs. If he goes 5 2/3 innings or less, the under would cash.