David Peterson has been one of the most fortunate starting pitchers in all of baseball. The southpaw has awful peripheral metrics, which could surely haunt him as his New York Mets play host to Cristopher Sánchez and the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, September 20.
Sánchez has been electric. and his peripherals are encouraging. He thrives at limiting hard contact, keeping the ball on the ground, and not walking many hitters. Since Philadelphia will be tasked with a much easier test in Peterson and both teams are hitting well, look for the visiting Phillies to take this win.
Let's get into the latest MLB odds, including my Phillies vs Mets prediction.
Phillies-Mets Predictions
- Phillies vs Mets picks: Phillies Moneyline (-108 | Play to -135)
My Phillies vs. Mets best bet is on the Phillies' moneyline, where I see value at -108. The best line is available at DraftKings, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7 -114o / -106u | -116 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 7 -114o / -106u | -102 |
Phillies at Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | LHP David Peterson (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-9 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 4.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 3.24/3.53 | ERA /xERA | 2.85/4.75 |
| 2.86/3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 3.86/4.21 |
| 1.23 | WHIP | 1.31 |
| 14.6% | K-BB% | 14.6% |
| 57.9% | GB% | 51.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 103 | Location+ | 98 |
D.J. James' Phillies vs Mets Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Sánchez Has Been Sharp
Sánchez has a 3.24 ERA and 3.53 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 87.6 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 80th percentile. He ranks in the 96th percentile in ground-ball rate with a below-average strikeout rate but a walk rate under 6%. He has looked sharp in September, carrying a 1.35 ERA over three starts, and he can throw deep into games, which would eliminate the fear of weaker relief options entering this game.
The Phillies have a 111 wRC+, 9.1% walk rate, and 18.8% strikeout rate against lefties in the past month. They have eight hitters above a .325 xwOBA, so this lineup can hit throughout. Plus, Peterson is due for some negative regression.
In relief, the Phillies own a 3.93 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, and 7.9% walk rate. They have four arms under a 4.00 xFIP. Since Sánchez has displayed the ability to throw deep into games and does not accrue pitches via walks or strikeouts, he should hand the ball over to some reliable arms.
New York Mets Betting Preview: Metrics Suggest Negative Regression for Peterson
Peterson has a 2.85 ERA and 4.75 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is almost 90 MPH with a Hard-Hit Rate in the 11th percentile. Yes, he can keep the ball on the ground and ranks in the 88th percentile, but allowing hard contact is a direct contrast to Sánchez. In addition, Peterson has a strikeout rate around 19% with a walk rate above 9%. None of those metrics should bode well with how well the Phillies are hitting lefties lately.
The Mets have a 131 wRC+ off lefties in the last month with a 9.2% walk rate and 19.1% strikeout rate. They have nine batters above a .325 xwOBA, so they have depth against lefties. However, Sánchez is a tough matchup and keeps the ball on the ground. New York may elevate the ball at times, but he can negate this edge they may have over other non-groundball throwers.
In relief, the Mets have a 3.83 xFIP, 28% strikeout rate, and 10% walk rate. They have five relievers under a 4.00 xFIP. However, with Peterson likely leaving this game early because of pitch accrual and having to face a deep Phillies’ lineup, the Mets could be forced to pitch their weakest middle relief options.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sánchez is the better starter, and it really is not even close. Peterson has been lucky all year, and this is a game where the chickens could come home to roost. Look for Philly to get him out of the game quickly, and look for Sánchez to keep the ball on the ground and negate any of the power hitters in the Mets’ lineup. He should continue his hot streak on the mound and pitch more than five innings.
Bet the Phillies to win this one on the road in a classic rivalry. Take them from -108 to -135.
Pick: Phillies -108 to -135
Moneyline
I'm betting the Phillies moneyline at -108 in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going to pass on the run line.
Over/Under
I'm also going to pass on the total.
Phillies vs Mets Betting Trends
Phillies Betting Trends
- Phillies are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Phillies' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 34 of Phillies' 78 last games at home
Mets Betting Trends
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Mets are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Mets are 40-35 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Mets' last 5 games
Phillies vs Mets Weather
