The "Payoff Pitch" podcast is back for another episode and, of course, has some best bets for Friday's slate. The Payoff Pitch crew digs into the MLB odds for Rangers vs. Yankees and Cardinals vs. Royals, so be sure to listen to today's episode and read their Friday best bets below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:05 p.m. | Rangers F5 and/or Full Game Moneyline |
  | 8:10 p.m. | Over 9 |
Rangers F5 and/or Full Game Moneyline at Yankees
7:05 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
I like this spot quite a bit for the Rangers, who had the day off yesterday, against a Yankees team that has played three games in the past 36 hours after playing a double-header two days ago.
The Yankees are coming off a loss to the Angels and head into this series with a worse bullpen and a rest disadvantage. I also think Cody Bradford is underrated with a 3.52 xERA through five starts. He has really good command and hasn't walked many guys, which I think is a strong indicator for a high floor. That said, his Stuff+ is below average and he does face a dangerous Yankees' lineup.
The Yankees will put Carlos Rodon on the bump and he's rounding back into form. The Yankees have the better offense, but the Rangers have the better defense and the more-rested bullpen. Texas has been banged up offensively and the numbers aren't what you expected. Because of that, I think Texas is still undervalued as there's still plenty of talent on this team.
This is purely a price play as there wasn't one best bet I really had today. I think you can take either the first five or the full game moneyline, whichever price is better.
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Royals vs. Cardinals Over 9
8:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
There are a couple below-average pitchers on the mound tonight with Michael Lorenzen and Miles Mikolas starting for the Royals and Cardinals.
Lorenzen, who got traded at the deadline, is a negative regression candidate with an ERA of 3.69, but an xERA of 4.62. His main problem is that he's walking too many guys. His two main pitches, his fastball and sinker, simply aren't that effective and he's leaving them in the zone to get hit hard. His sinker, which he throws close to 22% of the time, has a Stuff+ in the 80's and not much velocity. He faces a Cardinals' lineup that's among the top five in expected weighted on base average against that pitch.
Mikolas, on the other side, is just a below-average starting pitcher. He's actually due for a bit of positive regression with a 4.47 xERA. He needs to generate a lot of soft contact, but faces a Royals' lineup that's really good against right-handed pitching and hits much better at home. Kansas City at home has a 107 WRC+ compared to an 88 WRC+ on the road.
I have this total projected at 9.9, so I love Over 9 at -110.
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