The Cleveland Guardians (88-65) host the Minnesota Twins (80-72) on Thursday afternoon at Progressive Field. First pitch for this AL Central series finale is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Find my Twins vs Guardians prediction and pick on the over/under for Thursday, plus the latest MLB odds for September 19, below.
Twins-Guardians Predictions
- Twins-Guardians picks: Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
My Twins vs Guardians best bet is on the over, where I see value at -105. The best line is available at FanDuel, as well as other sportsbooks — make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -130o / +110u | -1.5 +165 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-110 | 8.5 -130o / +110u | +1.5 -200 |
- Twins-Guardians Moneyline: Twins -110 | Guardians -110
- Twins-Guardians Over/Under: 8.5 total runs (-130o / +110u)
- Twins-Guardians Spread: Twins -1.5 (+165) | Guardians +1.5 (-200)
Twins-Guardians Probable Pitchers for Thursday
| RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | Stat | RHP Joey Cantillo (CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-5 | W-L | 2-3 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.08 / 4.15 | ERA /xERA | 4.99 / 4.10 |
| 4.04 / 4.60 | FIP / xFIP | 4.67 / 3.61 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 11.7% | K-BB% | 16.9% |
| 36.1% | GB% | 48.2% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 94 |
Tony Sartori's Twins vs Guardians Preview
Twins Betting Preview: Simeon Woods Richardson Underwhelms
Woods Richardson has put together an underwhelming campaign. Through 26 starts, the right-hander possesses a 4.08 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally poor, as Woods Richardson ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate.
Following the right-hander is a bullpen that ranks 20th in ERA.
With that said, run support shouldn't be an issue for this pitching staff. This season, Minnesota ranks in the top 10 in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
This success at the dish is likely to continue against Cantillo, a pitcher whom this current Cleveland lineup boasts a .294 BA, .765 SLG and .477 wOBA against through 20 combined career plate appearances.
Guardians Betting Preview: Regression Unlikely for Joey Cantillo
In his lone start against Minnesota, Cantillo surrendered three runs on eight hits-plus-walks in under six innings of work.
On the season, the southpaw is now 2-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Like Woods Richardson, Cantillo's analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely. The rookie hurler ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, Cleveland's lineup ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP, home runs and stolen bases.
Twins vs Guardians Prediction, Betting Analysis
There should be a lot of optimism on the over at 8.5.
Both starting pitchers rank in the bottom half of the league in xERA, which is likely to be a problem against two lineups that rank in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, OBP and home runs.
My main concern is Cleveland's stellar bullpen, but that's offset by a Minnesota relief staff that ranks 20th in ERA.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 | Play to -110)
Moneyline
I'm going to pass on the moneyline. I believe that both starting pitchers are strong, and the gap between the two lineups isn't substantial enough to swing me in a particular direction.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm also going to pass on the run line. I like the Guardians at +1.5, but not with the amount of juice I'd have to lay.
Over/Under
I'm betting over 8.5 in this game.
Twins & Guardians Betting Trends
- 71% of the bets and 85% of the money are on the Guardians on the moneyline.
- 55% of the bets and 45% of the money are on the over.
- 73% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the Guardians to cover the run line.
Twins Betting Trends
- The Twins are 34-42 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone over in three of Twins' past five games
Guardians Betting Trends
- The Guardians are 3-2 in their past five games.
- The Guardians are 3-2 in their past five games against the spread.
Twins-Guardians Game Info: How to Watch, Start Time, Channel, More
| Location: | Progressive Field |
| Date: | Thursday, September 19, 2024 |
| Time: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV Channel/Live Streaming: | MLB Network | Bally Sports North / Great Lakes |
