Guardians vs Astros Odds
| Cleveland Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 +135 |
| Houston Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-190 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +110 |
The Astros were able to avoid a disastrous loss in the series opener against the Guardians on Monday night, as they were able to claim a 10-9 win on Victor Caratini's walk-off home run in extra innings. The Astros are last in the American League West at 10-19, but are riding a season-high three-game winning streak entering Tuesday.
With Justin Verlander (1.74 ERA over 10 1/3 IP) set to take on Triston McKenzie (4.91 ERA over 22 IP) the Astros are once again priced as heavy betting favorites.
The latest Guardians vs Astros odds have the Astros installed as -190 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5. My Guardians vs Astros prediction, however, targets a different market as I see value on a Jose Altuve player prop.
Cleveland Guardians
It's been a tough start to the season for Triston McKenzie, who has pitched to an xERA of 4.87 and an xFIP of 6.08. The 26-year-old righty was thought to be a bounce-back candidate entering this season — he posted a dominant 2.96 ERA in 2022, but disappointed in 2023 due to various injuries.
McKenzie's stuff rates out slightly below league average (98 Stuff+) thus far in 2024, which is down considerably from the 113+ mark he posted during his excellent 2022 season. Locating effectively has also been a concern (89 Location+) — his K/9 is down to 7.36, and his ground-ball rate is only 30.3%.
Right-handed batters have a chase rate of just 19% versus McKenzie this season, which is the fourth-lowest mark among MLB pitchers who have pitched at least 11 innings.
Maximize your Guardians-Astros action with our FanDuel promo code.
Houston Astros
Despite their horrid 10-19 record, the Astros continue to be one of the most productive teams in the league. They have a team wRC+ of 117, which ranks fourth. They have struck out less than any team in MLB at only 16.6%, and their xSLG of .429 ranks fourth.
Against right-handed pitchers specifically, they have the sixth-best wRC+ at 114.
Jose Altuve's greatly improved results versus righties have been a big part of the Astros' success versus right-handers. Altuve's .667 slug rate versus righties ranks first in the AL. He also owns a .368 average versus righties and has struck out just 8.8% of the time.
Altuve is batting.406 on breaking pitches from righties this season, which is fifth in MLB. He gets to face a pitcher in McKenzie who throws breaking balls 45% of the time. Altuve has also put 61% of his swings in play versus right-handed fastballs.
Guardians vs. Astros
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Astros have been the most profitable team to fade this year, as they continue to be priced as favorites despite overachieving in many key areas. The Guardians, meanwhile, have been a profitable team to back, as they are overachieving expectations with a 19-10 start.
Still, I can't quite find a bet on the Guardians for this game. The Astros should be able to hammer McKenzie, and with that in mind, the numbers look fair.
This looks to be an excellent matchup for Altuve, who has been the best AL batter versus right-handed pitching. He will have a great chance to do damage early against McKenzie, and he should have a reasonable chance to get five at-bats in this matchup.
Altuve is priced at +115 to record over 1.5 total bases, and I see value with that prop at +105 or better.
