Aaron Nola takes the bump for the Philadelphia Phillies in a crucial Game 3 on Wednesday. He will be facing either Bryce Elder or A.J. Smith-Shawver. The Atlanta Braves are performing a little gamesmanship and holding off on announcing either until early on Wednesday. But it sounds like we could see both Smith-Shawver and Elder in this game, in some order.
Nola is the one with the playoff experience between both of these teams, so the Phillies should have an edge, when it comes to starting pitching, either way.
Let's dive and make a Braves vs. Phillies pick for Game 3 of the NLDS.
Phillies vs. Braves Game 3 Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 9 -118o / -104u | +102 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 9 -118o / -104u | -120 |
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Atlanta Braves
Smith-Shawver had a 4.27 ERA against a 3.87 xERA this season in 25 1/3 innings. He struck out only 19% of batters, while walking over 10% in that time, so he may not be ready for the big stage, perhaps at the stadium with a massive edge to his opponent.
He also only kept the ball on the ground 37% of the time, so this is concerning, knowing the pop in the Phils’ lineup.
Elder had a 3.88 ERA against a 4.51 xERA this season. He had an Average Exit Velocity of 89.9 mph with a Barrel Rate of 6% and a Hard-Hit Rate of 41%. He does not strike out many at only 17.5% and walks 8.6%.
The main issue with Elder was not the ground balls (50.6%), but his second half was more in line with expected numbers at a 5.11 ERA over 68 2/3 innings.
The Braves can hammer the ball, but Nola held them in check in two of three starts against them this season. The Braves held a 132 wRC+ and .871 OPS since August 1 off of righties with an 8.2% walk rate and 18.2% strikeout rate. They have eight qualified batters above a .320 xwOBA with those parameters, so this is a tall task for Nola.
The Braves had a 4.00 xFIP in relief since August 1 with a 9.3% walk rate and 25.5% strikeout rate. They have five pitchers below a 4.00 xFIP, so if the Phils get into the middle relievers, they could push across some runs after the starter exits.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nola had a 4.46 ERA against a 3.77 xERA. His Barrel Rate was 8.3% against an Average Exit Velocity of 89.3 mph and a Hard-Hit Rate of 38.5%. His walk rate was 5.7%, and his strikeout rate was 25.5%, so these are both reasonable numbers.
In his last two outings against the Braves, he held them to two earned runs over 12 innings.
The Phils had similar success as Atlanta against right-handed pitching, and this cannot be said about most in the playoff field. Since August 1, the Phillies had eight qualified batters above a .320 xwOBA. They also maintained a 119 wRC+ and .822 OPS in that timeframe. Their walk rate was 8.9%, while their strikeout rate was 22.8%.
In relief, the Phils had a 4.00 xFIP since August 1, so it was the same as the Braves. They also held a collective 9.5% walk rate against a 26.2% strikeout rate. They only have one arm above a 4.00 xFIP on the postseason roster, so this might be a bit more dependable than the Braves.
Braves vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
Nola is the better arm in this game, clearly, and every other facet of this game is pretty close from a matchup perspective.
Relying on two young arms makes sense, given how strapped the Braves are, but they will not be able to handle Nola as easily.
Take the Phillies at -120, and play them to -135.
