Astros vs. Mariners Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 7.5 -120o / +102u | -1.5 +142 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 7.5 -120o / +102u | +1.5 -172 |
Wednesday's critical matchup between Framber Valdez (3.39 ERA, 194 IP) and Bryce Miller (4.17 ERA, 127 and 1/3 IP) could decide who earns the AL's final wild-card spot.
At 85-72, the Mariners sit a half-game back of the Astros and will own the tie-breaker regardless of the outcome of this matchup.
Houston Astros
This matchup could nearly be classified as a playoff game for the Astros. If they lose, even a series sweep of Arizona for a final record of 89-73 still might not be enough to crack the postseason.
Framber Valdez's dominant 2022 postseason was a key reason that Houston went on to win it all. Valdez pitched to a 1.44 ERA across 25 innings, and he came into this season with massive expectations as a result.
A 3.39 ERA overall this season is by no means a letdown, but his shaky 4.55 ERA in the second half has been somewhat of a concern. He has pitched to an xERA of 4.22 with an impressive xFIP of 3.22.
Valdez's recent results suggest he is stabilizing ahead of this massive start. He has pitched to an xFIP of 3.30 across his last five starts, with an ERA of 3.34, and has struck out 9.46 batters per nine innings.
He owns a Stuff+ of 108 and a Location+ of 97. Since last season, Valdez has allowed a slug rate of only .226 on breaking pitches, which is the best mark in baseball among starters with at least 125 innings. His 2838.4 RPM on curveballs is seventh-highest among qualified starters since last season.
Houston has hit to a league-leading 132 wRC+ over the last 30 days with a K/BB ratio of 0.52. Michael Brantley should remain the only notable absence from the lineup Wednesday.
Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller will hope to build upon his strong numbers at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park Wednesday in what will be the most important start of his career.
He has pitched to a 3.34 ERA at home across 70 innings with a WHIP of only 1.04. Those marks are drastically better than his numbers on the road, even beyond adjusting for the park factors of T-Mobile.
Miller's arm talent rates tremendously as he owns a Stuff+ of 117 with strong marks on his fastball, slider and curveball. That has not translated into soft contact, however, as he has allowed a 41.7% hard-hit rate and xERA of 4.81. Over Miller's last five outings, he has pitched to an xFIP of 4.31 and struck out 7.01 batters per nine.
The Mariners bullpen is correctly rated as one of the best in the league. They have continued to dominate recently with an xFIP of 3.78 over the last 30 days – the top mark in baseball.
They likely will prefer to avoid having Miller face the top of the Astros order three times in many game scripts, so the availability of top arms in this spot is quite relevant.
Matt Brash threw for the first time in five days on Tuesday, and he logged 25 pitches. Justin Topa threw eight pitches Tuesday but did not work Monday and should be available in this spot. Andres Munoz has pitched on 2/3 days for 28 innings.
Seattle has hit to a wRC+ of 99 over the last 30 days with a strikeout rate of 25.1%.
Astros vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
It is expected to be just 56 degrees outside at first pitch with humidity levels favorable to pitchers.
Both of these starters feature strong underlying numbers, and they will be backed by dominant bullpens.
Additionally, both managers should be aggressive using their top relievers to get starters out of any jams in this matchup, which is essentially a playoff game.
A total of 8 at -112 is a touch high here in these conditions with these bullpens. Even if one of Valdez or Miller has a notably bad start here, we could still find a way to come in under the total. Anything better -120 is a play for me to go under eight runs.
