We lost this one last week but I remain undeterred that the underlying skill of this player is going to show value on attacking this low of a benchmark. FantasyPoints data has a metric they chart called “separation win rate” that tracks how often receivers get open on their routes. Polk is among the highest in the league at 31% wins, and I expect we’ll see a very productive game soon.

With Andy Dalton starting at QB, I would be really surprised if the offense struggled to the same degree as we saw with Bryce Young. Johnson eclipsed this mark 8 of 13 games in 2023 with similarly incompetent QB play as Andy Dalton might bring to the table. Our projections expect things to look slightly better and show an edge (even at the high price) on 3.5 so I’m not overthinking . It makes sense and the model likes it.

It’s not incredibly likely that the Chiefs turn heavily to a rookie fullback, a street free agent, and a primary passing down back (on the team for less than 1 month) to carry their offense. It is far more likely that they turn to their top 2 all-time quarterback and wide variety of passing weapons to move the ball. Mahomes has averaged over 300 yards per game indoors in his career, and the conditions are ripe to eclipse a total much more conservative than this in week 3. RG prop model was on this and I tend to agree.