Devils vs. Capitals Odds
| Devils Odds | -180 |
| Capitals Odds | +150 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110o / +110u |
Here's everything you need to know about the New Jersey Devils vs. Washington Capitals on Tuesday, February 20 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The New Jersey Devils will look to carry the momentum from their critical Stadium Series victory into another crucial divisional game against the Washington Capitals. After their 6-3 win on Saturday, the Devils sit just four points out of a wild-card spot and five points behind the Philadelphia Flyers with two games in hand.
While the Capitals are listed at +1200 odds to make the playoffs because of their shaky underlying process, a regulation win tonight would leave them only two points back of the Devils with a game in hand.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make a Devils vs. Capitals prediction.
New Jersey Devils
The Devils have had two major excuses for their disappointing record thus far: terrible injury luck and league-worst goaltending. Those excuses no longer fly. It's time for them to start stacking wins.
Nico Daws, who is expected to start tonight, has been excellent in goal of late, with a .941 SV% over his last four outings. In 12 appearances this season, he has played to a 4.3 GSAx and .912 SV%. Some regression looms, but the Devils will happily take league-average goaltending the rest of the way.
Additionally, with Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat, Timo Meier and now Jonas Siegenthaler back healthy, the Devils' lineup is more complete than it has been for most of this season. As a result, they have started to look much more like last year's group, dominating possession and consistently putting together prolonged spells of offensive-zone time. The Devils do an excellent job of attacking with all five skaters and moving off the puck to create support options.
Most importantly, Hughes has looked like himself since returning to the lineup, anchoring a strong second line with Tyler Toffoli and Erik Haula. This allows coach Lindy Ruff to stack his top unit, playing Jesper Bratt and Ondrej Palat alongside center Nico Hischier. In 229.4 even-strength minutes, this trio has played to a 64.4 xGF%.
Meier has also put together one of his best stretches as a Devil of late. Meier, Dawson Mercer and Curtis Lazar have formed an effective third line that has played to a 65.4% xGF% and chipped in where it counts.
Washington Capitals
The Capitals came out of the All-Star break with an ugly 5-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens — a game in which their effort and urgency were noticeably lacking from the start. Since then, coach Spencer Carbery has gotten a response from his veteran squad, as they have found a way to grind out a 2-2-1 record despite a stretch that included games against the Florida Panthers, Boston Bruins, Vancouver Canucks and Colorado Avalanche.
Carbery continues to get the most out of his aging side which features very few two-way play drivers. It seems Carbery is a strong coach, but he is without anything close to a Hischier, Bratt or Hughes-type player to deploy.
Over the last 10 games, the Capitals own a 48.51% xGF% and have allowed 31.09 SA/60. I'd argue they've played better than people realize recently, or at least displayed a commendable level of urgency and organization for the most part. Still, the lack of talent on this roster makes carrying play a challenge versus quality teams.
The Capitals will be without Martin Fehervary for the foreseeable future, as he was injured early in Saturday's game against Montreal. While Fehervary is far from a household name, he has been excellent this season and is the Capitals' second-best defender by a significant margin.
Charlie Lindgren has been confirmed as Washington's starting goaltender for this matchup. He has played to an 8.2 GSAx and .913 SV% across 24 appearances this season.
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Devils vs. Capitals
Betting Pick & Prediction
With each passing game, the Devils look more like the possession-based dynamo that cruised to 112 points last season. They have put up 36.32 SOG/60 in seven games since the break, and they should be able to put up a similar figure versus a Capitals team that rarely controls play.
The reason behind the Devils' improvement is clear – Hughes has been playing at an elite level since returning and is more than capable of carrying Toffoli and Haula to strong results at even strength. Hischier, Bratt and Palat have also been a dominant top line. Meier is now finding his form and helping drive play on the third unit, too.
There is some value in betting the Devils to win this game at -170, but backing Lindgren to record over 27.5 saves is where I project the most value. Whether the Devils win or lose this game, they should carry much of the play.
The 27.5 number is two saves too low for me, as the Devils should post at least 33 shots on goal even if they're leading throughout. New Jersey's last game versus the Flyers is a testament to this, as it had a two-goal lead for the majority of the game against a strong defensive team and still finished with 40 shots on goal.
The Capitals have been comfortable playing a defensive game of late, so they will likely accept that they aren't going to drive play tonight and look to avoid high-risk breakdowns.
Pick: Charlie Lindgren Over 27.5 Saves (-125 at bet365 | Play to -135)
