Avalanche vs. Red Wings Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -132 |
| Red Wings Odds | +110 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -150 / +124 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Colorado Avalanche vs. Detroit Red Wings on Thursday, February 22 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Nathan MacKinnon will look to continue his case for the Hart Trophy as he leads the Colorado Avalanche's No. 1 ranked offense into Detroit. Colorado owns a 13-13-4 road record and will be starting backup goaltender Justus Annunen.
Little Caesars Arena has been one of the NHL's toughest places to play this year. The Red Wings own a 15-8-5 record on home ice and are 6-3-1 in their past 10 games. Detroit is looking to secure a playoff berth for the first time since 2016.
Let's dig into the NHL odds and make an Avalanche vs. Red Wings prediction and pick.
Colorado Avalanche
Nikita Kucherov, Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid and MacKinnon are all putting together MVP-level campaigns, and in any other year, MacKinnon might be the runaway winner. He is a worthy favorite at +160 odds, but the race is far from over.
The Avalanche have relied heavily upon their core of true superstars in MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Devon Toews and Mikko Rantanen this season. All four are averaging over 23 minutes of ice time per night, which is particularly high for the forwards — MacKinnon and Rantanen.
As a result, the Avalanche own the best offensive numbers in the league this year, scoring 3.68 goals per game. Over their past 15 contests, they have generated 3.57 xGF/60, which is the seventh-best mark in the NHL.
Dominant offensive play was the Avalanche's greatest strength when they won the Stanley Cup in 2022, and they will likely be even more reliant on elite offensive play this season if they make a deep run. Their 3.72 xGA/60 over the past 15 games is the fourth-worst mark in the entire league.
It's fair to think Colorado's defensive metrics will improve, but it's clear the Avalanche are getting a ton of credit for their reputation and past success defensively. They did play an excellent defensive game against the league-leading Canucks on Monday. They will try to build on that tonight.
However, Annunen will be put to the test tonight versus an opportunistic Red Wings attack that features quality shooters across the board. Annunen owns a 0.1 GSAx and .888 SV% in three NHL appearances this season and a .908 SV% in 23 AHL games this year.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings' potent offense shined through in its critical wins over the Calgary Flames and Seattle Kraken to finish off a lengthy road trip. They put up nine total goals on only 53 total shots in those two matchups, coming from a total of eight different goal-scorers. James Reimer and Alex Lyon provided excellent goaltending, and the Red Wings now own a four-point cushion for the final wild-card spot.
Public modeling systems such as MoneyPuck.com, are still relatively low on the Red Wings' chances due to a modest underlying process. MoneyPuck gives the Red Wings a 51.6% chance of making the playoffs, while Bet365's oddsmakers are far more bullish, offering them a 60% chance.
Over the past 10 games, the Red Wings have played to an xGF% of only 44.83, but they continue to receive better goaltending than expected and finish chances at an elite rate.
There's reason to believe Detroit can continue to score beyond what the numbers suggest. Its power play does a great job of making seam passes and creating high-quality shots. It ranks 10th with a 23.2% success rate, and I expect that success to continue. Additionally, with names like Daniel Sprong, Robby Fabbri, and David Perron currently playing in the bottom-six, the Red Wings have more offensive talent at the bottom of their lineup than many other teams.
I'm not sold on their defense, though, and if Alex Lyon's play continues to level off, their GAA is due for a spike. Lyon has played to a 3.0 GSAx and a .912 SV% across 25 games this season. He has been confirmed as tonight's starter.
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Avalanche vs. Red Wings
Betting Pick & Prediction
Detroit's clinical finishing continues to allow it to outscore expectations. The Red Wings create offense at an elite rate without generating a lofty sum of dangerous chances. They should be able to play to their offensive strengths tonight against a team that has not defended as well as one would think. Annunen is a below-average goaltending option, too, so don't expect him to cover up for a shaky defensive performance.
Regardless, the Avalanche can still score at an elite level, and the Red Wings are giving up a ton of chances. That will become more of a problem if Lyon's play comes back down to earth.
Betting Over 6.5 at -148 is reasonable, as I like the chances that both teams hit three goals. Given my specific belief that both sides contribute to this total, I see more value in backing both teams to score three, which is available at Bet365 at +125. I also like the chances of a close game throughout, and wouldn't be surprised if both teams manage to scrape out a point. Overtime is priced at +370 at FanDuel, and I believe it's worthy of a smaller wager.
Picks: Both Teams to Score Over 2.5 Goals (+125 at Bet365, Play to +120) | Regulation Tie (+370 at FanDuel, Play to +355)
