The New England Patriots (1-1) face the New York Jets (1-1) on Thursday Night Football to kick off NFL Week 3 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Kickoff will be at 8:15 p.m. ET exclusively on Prime Video.
The Jets are 6.5-point favorites with the over/under set at 38.5. New York is -270 on the moneyline, while the Patriots are +220 to pull off the upset.
New England has made its living on the ground, with Jacoby Brissett playing a complementary role to the Patriots' running game, starring Rhamondre Stevenson (201 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns). Aaron Rodgers is yet to hit his stride this season, but Breece Hall (217 total yards, 2 touchdowns) and Braelon Allen (2 touchdowns in Week 2) in the backfield are powering the offense.
Let's get into my Patriots vs. Jets prediction for my NFL picks for Thursday Night Football Week 3.
Patriots vs. Jets Prediction
Spread
I'm not betting the spread for this game since I'm in line with Jets -6.5.
Moneyline
I'm not betting the moneyline either.
Over/Under
Both the Patriots and Jets are likely to lean on their run games on a short week, but injuries on the New England offensive line and key players on the Jets defense make it unclear how effective that will be for the Pats. This will be crucial to keeping the game close and avoiding a pass-heavy game script. If the Patriots can manage this, it should help keep the game under 38.5 points.
This is not an official bet, but I lean toward the under more than any other play on the spread or total in this game.
Jets vs. Patriots Prediction: Under 38.5
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 38.5 -112o / -108u | +220 |
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 38.5 -112o / -108u | -270 |
- Patriots vs. Jets spread: Jets -6.5
- Patriots vs. Jets over/under: 38.5 points
- Patriots vs. Jets moneyline: Jets -275, Patriots +225
- 69% of bets and 76% of the money are on the Jets to cover the spread.
- 79% of bets and 75% of the money are on the over.
- 80% of bets and 69% of the money on the moneyline are on the Jets.
Thursday Night Football Week 3
Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
Under new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots offense has been extremely run-heavy with a -9.1% PROE (Pass Rate Over Expected) that ranks 25th in the league. New England isn't hiding its inclination to run either, using six or more offensive linemen on an NFL-high 26 plays this season and running the ball on 25 of those snaps. It makes sense for the Patriots to continue leaning on the run as they face the Jets, who boast one of the best secondaries in the league.
Jacoby Brissett has been under pressure on 44% of his dropbacks, the second-highest rate in the league, while the Jets have generated the highest pressure rate (44%). To complicate things, Patriots left tackle Vederian Lowe and left guard Sidy Sow have been ruled out. While rookies Caeden Wallace and Michael Jordan will step in, I don’t expect a significant dropoff. It’s still not ideal for a team that frequently utilizes formations with six or more linemen, especially given its thin depth on a short week.
The Jets have also taken some hits. Edge rusher Jermaine Johnson (Achilles) is out for the season, Haason Reddick remains in a holdout and Leki Fotu is still on injured reserve. To add to their woes, LB C.J. Mosley (toe) hasn’t practiced this week and will be a game-time decision.
Expect the Patriots to rely heavily on the run game with Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson to limit Brissett’s dropbacks against this formidable Jets pass rush and avoid challenging their stingy secondary.
Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Unlike Brissett, Aaron Rodgers should have a fairly clean pocket on Thursday Night Football. The Jets offensive line has been performing well, with Rodgers facing pressure on only 25% of his dropbacks, which is the fifth-lowest rate in the league. On the other hand, the Patriots have struggled to generate pressure, with a 24% pressure rate, which is third lowest in the league.
That said, Rodgers has shown some rust after missing nearly all of 2023 due to an Achilles tear and entering his age-41 season. His completion percentage is 9% lower than expected, and his average intended air yards is just 5.4 yards downfield, the third-lowest rate among qualified QBs. This indicates that the Jets may continue to rely on a more conservative approach, favoring quick, short passes to complement their run game.
Expect the Jets to lean heavily on the ground attack, utilizing Breece Hall and impressive rookie Braelon Allen, while also incorporating short, efficient passes from Rodgers to move the chains.
My Prediction
Both offenses rank in the top 10 in punt rate per drive — New England is third and New York is seventh — which suggests we could be in for a Thursday night defensive struggle with few points on the board.
Patriots punter Bryce Baringer has been outstanding this season, averaging 53.8 yards per punt and pinning teams inside their own 20-yard line on 64% of his punts. He has the second-longest punt of the season (67 yards) and had the third-longest punt (79 yards) last season. When you're betting on an under, having strong punters like Baringer and Jets veteran Thomas Morstead is key.
Primetime unders have been a profitable trend over the past few seasons, and this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair.
My projection is 37.5. I wish we had a bit more value here, though, so under 38.5 is just a lean for me.
Pick: Under 38.5
How to Watch Thursday Night Football
| Location: | MetLife Stadium |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Prime Video |
New York vs. New England is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. The game will be broadcast and streamed live on Prime Video.
Weather
