The Action Network has a set of proprietary algorithms that target each NBA playoff game and their player props.
For Hawks vs. Celtics on Tuesday night, those models love a particular Trae Young player prop — but it's not bullish on how the point guard will do.
Trae Young Player Prop Projection
*Odds and projections as of Tuesday morning
Young had regressed this season, but the market is still incorporating previous pedigree into its projections, according to our models.
The guard is projected to put up 22.09 points tonight vs. the Celtics, but the total on the market is slotted at 24.5. The best price attainable is at DraftKings at u24.5 points (-105).
That particular line provides a roughly 19% betting edge. Effectively, you'll be receiving a 19% discount. Another way to think of it: the second you press submit on that wager, you'll be receiving 19% in expected value.
By that same ilk, a line at PointsBet has value, too.
Young's projection on points and rebounds is 25.4, but the sportsbook is pricing that line at 28.5. Even at a vig of -120, this line has 19.2% EV.
Do keep in mind that these models work best when you wager with the same unit sizing for each individual bet.
