Friday night's NBA Playoffs slate features some must-win matchups and that means we should be able to find with value in player prop markets on guys who are looking to step up in big games.
I'm targeting two 3-point props in tonight's Game 6 matchups: Kings vs Warriors (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) and Grizzlies vs. Lakers (10:30 p.m. ET). Check out my picks for two knockdown 3-point shooters below.
Kings vs.
Warriors
| Prop | Klay Thompson 4.5 3-Pointers (-110) |
| Spread | Warriors -7.5 |
| Time | TV | 8 p.m. ET |ESPN |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
When it comes to an over/under of 4.5 3-pointers, there are only three active players in the NBA I’d ever consider for an over in this spot and they are all Mononymous: Steph, Dame and Klay.
We're focusing on the latter of that group tonight as Klay Thompson has a favorable matchup. Has hit this number in three of the five games in the series and averages 10.8 3-point attempts per game, second in the playoffs behind Stephen Curry.
Thompson didn’t hit this in the two home games of this series, but I’m not worried because he was a flamethrower at home this season. He made 4.9 3s per home game, which would’ve been first in the NBA if he didn’t play with Curry. In the final 10 games of the regular season, Thompson hit this prop in eight games.
-His shot splits also line up for taking such a large number: 66% of all his shots come from behind the 3-point line in the playoffs. (I typically aim for anything above 55% with this kind of volume.) Also, Game 6 Klay is a real thing — Thompson's three-highest 3-point totals in his playoff career have come in a Game 6, per Basketball Reference. In a closeout game at home, seven 3-pointer night wouldn’t shock anyone.
The Pick: Thompson Over 4.5 3-pointers (-110)
Grizzlies vs.
Lakers
| Prop | Austin Reaves 1.5 3-Pointers |
| Spread | Lakers -4.5 |
| Time | TV | 10:30 p.m. ET | ESPN |
| Best Line | Bet365 |
Austin Reaves has hit at least two 3-pointers in three of the five games in the series. He's shooting over 40% from beyond the arc in playoffs and shot 42% from deep in home games this season.
Reaves has been logging heavy minutes for the Lakers playing 37 minutes per game in the playoffs. This is important to note because only three Lakers are playing over 30 min per game in the postseason. Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Reaves.
D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Dennis Schroeder have each seen their minutes have fluctuate depending on score and situation; it's been hard to trust the rotations from Lakers head coach Darvin Ham. What we do know is that Reaves will close out games for the Lakers and play in crunch time — he's second on the team in fourth quarter minutes and in plus/minus in the series (+7.2).
The other reason I like Reaves here has more to do with LeBron, who has shot horribly from 3 in this series: 16.7% on 7.2 attempts per game. James will likely defer early to conserve his energy, take advantage of the drive-and-kick offense and dish it to Reaves for open 3s. I like the Lakers guard a lot in this spot.
