NBA Best Bets Today
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
It's a new day and another set of NBA games for us to dive into. Before the in-season tournament officially tips off tomorrow night, we have another installment of Spurs vs. Suns madness, plus the Magic face the Jazz.
Let's hop into tonight's games with the best NBA bets and expert picks for Thursday, November 2.
Expert Picks for Thursday: Best NBA Bets Tonight
Magic vs. Jazz
By Jim Turvey
In the Magic and Jazz, we have two of the bottom-nine teams in Pace this season, as of writing.
The Magic actually possess the fourth-slowest Pace and have yet to play a game that has topped 220 points. That's in part due to the Pace, but they also have the fourth-ranked defense so far this young season.
We don't want to overreact to small sample size, but this was also the sixth-ranked defense over the last two-thirds of the 2022-23 season, and head coach Jamahl Mosley has implemented one of the best defensive systems in the league.
The Jazz have a notably bad defense and had a notably bad defense last season too, but the Magic offense isn't exactly a juggernaut. The Magic are in the bottom 10 in the league for 3-pointers taken per 100 possessions (24th) and also allow the eighth-fewest 3-point attempts per 100 possessions — a great combo for the under.
I would play this to under 221.
Pick: Under 223.5 | Play to Under 221
Spurs vs. Suns
By Matt Moore
This is an absolute trend play. Since 2003, when teams play their opponent a second time in a span of three days in the regular season and are home favorites after losing the last game at home, they are:
- 20-8 at home
- 16-11-1 (59%) ATS
- When that opponent is under .500, as we can expect the Spurs to be this year, 11-7 ATS.
The Suns will be livid over blowing a lead they held for 47 minutes and 45 seconds Tuesday. This is a great spot in what we call a "duplex" where you face an opponent twice in a week.
Pick: Suns to Cover the Spread
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The Suns absolutely dominated the first half on both ends of the floor on Tuesday, and this is a prime spot for them to do it again. Phoenix bested San Antonio in every advanced statistical category that's tracked on NBA.com except for Turnover Percentage. Phoenix had a True Shooting Percentage of 64.8, Effective Field Goal Percentage of 63 and a +37 Net Rating.
These are also two very different first-half teams. The Suns have the second-best Net Rating in the first half (26.2) while the Spurs are fourth-worst (-16.8). When you add in the motivation spot after the embarrassing meltdown, this is a classic spot for the Suns to come out swinging and not let up.
I lean heavily to the Suns for the full game, but the first half is where I'm zeroing in. I'll take Phoenix at any number.
