NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, Jan. 23
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jazz vs. Pelicans
By Joe Dellera
Fontecchio has been excellent for the Utah Jazz and has seen his minutes climb through each month of the season as he earned a starting role.
In 26 games as a starter, he is averaging 10.9 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per game in 28.1 minutes. Over his last 10 games he has exceeded this 13.5 PRA line in 8 of them while averaging 14.7 PRA.
I like the combo stat here because I see some value on each of the points, rebounds, and assists. His 3 point shooting could provide valuable for scoring, the rebounds have been a solid floor for him, and the assists have been excellent of late with some upside.
This matchup against the Pelicans is one where he should see plenty of run considering he is essentially their only starting Wing. If the PRA market is not available to you, my pivot is the over 3.5 rebounds at +$.
Pick: Simone Fontecchio over 13.5 PRA
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Knicks vs. Nets
The Knicks are 7-3 against the spread as a road favorite, fifth in the NBA, second in the NBA with anyone of a sample size larger than four games trailing only the Dallas Mavericks, who are 8-2.
The Knicks ATS plus minus is +4.0 as a road favorite, which is fourth among teams with a better than four game sample size.
The Nets have been excellent as a home favorite, but they're 3.5-point dogs as of this writing, though they opened at +5. As a home underdog, they're 4-4-2, tied for the 14th best record ATS in the league, and they move up two spots if you weigh sample size larger than four games, so not a dramatic increase.
Furthermore, while this could be a bounce back spot for the Nets, I don't see it. They look like their spirit is broken, they're playing mostly poorly, they're not closing well late in games and are just 4-15 after a 13-10 start to the season.
So far this year, the Nets are just 9-15 after losses straight up, seventh worst record in the NBA, and having last played Sunday, they're at a one day rest disadvantage to New York, who beat the Raptors on Saturday. Brooklyn is 4-5-1 on a rest disadvantage, a bottom half record in the league.
Pick: Knicks -3.5
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Lakers vs. Clippers
By Joe Dellera
Harden has been a monster lately and over his last 15 games he is averaging 9.7 assists per game exceeding this 8.5 line in 11/15 and 10+ in 8/15. He is fifth in the NBA over this stretch with 14.8 potential assists per game as well.
Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Lakers who will be without LeBron James. LeBron has been a positive defensively for the Lakers this season, and the team’s defense is 4.7 points better when he’s been on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. Not having LeBron’s size should make it a bit easier for the Clippers to finish on Harden’s passes.
I like Harden to exceed 8.5 assists and I will play some Double Double as it has the same odds as 10+ assists but gives us an additional out if he decides to rebound today.
Pick: James Harden over 8.5 Assists and Double Double
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Lakers vs. Clippers
By Jim Turvey
The Battle for L.A. headlines the start of NBA's Rivalry Week on Tuesday, but it's missing its biggest name: LeBron James.
James has already been ruled out for Tuesday night's affair, and against an elite Clippers team, that's bad news for the Lakers. The Clippers, as has been much discussed, started the season 5-10 ATS but are 17-9 ATS since, with no signs of slowing down (8-3 ATS last 11 games).
It took a minute for them to find their groove, but they now possess the third-best offense and 10th-best defense by Cleaning the Glass, one of five teams with a top ten rank in both, and legitimately one of the best teams in the NBA right now. By Dunks and Threes adjusted net rating, they sit sixth in the league, at +4.6, and that season-long number slightly undersells what they have done since turning the corner.
The Lakers, on the other hand, have failed to turn the corner yet, sitting at 22-22, with an adjusted net rating slightly below that (-0.6). And without LeBron, the offense is going to struggle mightily. Per PBPstats.com, the Lakers true shooting percentage drops from 59.5 percent with James on the court to 57.7 with him off. They make fewer threes; their FG% at the rim drops; their shot quality drops; their assist rate plummets. Add it all together, and it's no surprise that their offense goes from scoring 116.9 points per 100 with James on the court to 109.2 with him off.
I make the Clippers -6.5 with a lessened home court but LeBron playing, and while it's crazy that James is still worth so much to the spread in his age-39 season, he undoubtedly does. I make this Clippers -11 and would play this to Clippers -9.5.
Pick: Clippers -8.5
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Knicks vs. Nets
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks take on the Nets in this cross town rivalry but they have been the significantly better team on the season. Although they may be without Isaiah Hartenstein, the defense has held up in the minutes with Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby. When they are both on the floor, the Knicks have a +17.8 point differential.
Compared to the Nets, the Knicks are 7th in Adjusted Net (+4.3) to Brooklyn’s 22nd (-1.6). Although Brooklyn has improved defensively of late, it seems to just be noise given the shot profile has not changed, just their results over a two week period.
The Knicks also just love to beat up on bad teams. When playing bottom-15 teams in Net Rating, the Knicks are 16-4 ATS in those matchups with an average spread differential of +6.45 points. The Knicks are also 19-1 straight-up in this spot, with their only loss coming to the Jazz and their average margin of victory at 12.95 points, per BetLabs.
Pick: Knicks -4.5
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