We understand if you have a slight In-Season Tournament hangover, but don't worry. The NBA will take it easy on all of us for tonight's four-game slate. We've got you covered on NBA best bets today: expert picks for Saturday, November 11. Our experts are Heat vs. Hawks heavy, but they also cover Cavaliers vs. Warriors for you.
So let's not hold you any longer and let's get right into the NBA action for Saturday.
NBA Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NBA betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Heat vs. Hawks
I get it, Tyler Herro is out, but no.
Jimmy Butler is actually probably my favorite player in the league. I'm not even joking. But he's gotten this over once this season — at exactly 38(28-6-4 line against the Lakers. I'd probably take this over in April, May or June, but not in November.
Duncan Robinson likely slides into the starting lineup, and assuming Caleb Martin is still out, the Heat will be looking for shooting and creation in Herro's absence more than Butler just shouldering the load. I think he could get close to this, and will have an increase in ball-handling, but I don't necessarily think you're getting 30-5-5 Jimmy yet. The number is just too high for me, but I'm always open to being wrong, especially as it relates to that dude.
Pick: Jimmy Butler under PRA (37.5) -110
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Heat vs. Hawks
By Jim Turvey
Division rivals, Atlanta and Miami meet for the first time this season on Saturday, with the Hawks opening as a 4.5-point favorite.
So far this season, the Hawks sit one game ahead of the Heat in the Southeast Division, but that undersells how much better they have been. For one, they have played the harder schedule of the two (although it's close), but if we go by net rating, the difference is more stark: +4.6 for Atlanta, -2.7 for Miami.
And even that number isn't full telling. The Heat lost their top offensive threat this season, Tyler Herro, during the last game. Herro leads the team in points per game, field goal attempts per game, threes per game, and is second in usage and assists.
Now the Heat have indeed won three straight, but they are mighty soft wins. The Wizards and Grizzlies have a combined three wins, while the Lakers, the best of the bunch, sit at 3-5 with question marks abound. That was a one-point win at home for Miami.
Atlanta, on the other hand, have only one bad loss (Hornets on Opening Night in Charlotte), but several marquee wins (Bucks, Timberwolves, Pelicans, and arguably even the Magic).
This number looks to have way too much of the preseason expectations (not my preseason expectations, mind you) baked in, and I'd play this all the way to Atlanta -7.
Pick: Hawks -4.5
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Heat vs. Hawks
Hunter is kind of a Heat killer.
Since the 2019 NBA Draft, he's scored at least 13 points in nine of them — that includes his very first two games where he netted just four points each. That doesn't include their 2022 playoff series where Hunter had, in order, 14-16-17-24 and 35.
He just kills this team, and while I'm not sure he does that again, I think over 12.5 feels like a cozy bet to lean on this weekend.
Pick: De'Andre Hunter over 12.5 points (-115)
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Cavaliers vs. Warriors
These two teams played nearly a week ago in Cleveland, and the Cavaliers handed the Warriors a commanding 115-104 loss. But that was the first time the Cavs have beat the Warriors since April 4, 2019, which also happens to be the last time they covered the spread against Golden State.
I think this is a good opportunity for the Warriors to bounce back after a close loss to the Nuggets in Denver and a revenge spot at home against the Cavaliers, but I'll focus on the first half.
Cleveland is also one of the worst teams in the first half this season at 2-6 ATS. It should also be noted that the Cavaliers just came off a loss to the Thunder, which also gives them a good bounce back spot, but fading teams coming off a game against the Thunder is 54-30 ATS (64%) since last season and that trend has continued into this season as well (6-1 ATS).
I lean to the Warriors full game in this spot, but they’ll be playing their fourth game in seven days and I’m worried about their legs at the end of the game. I’ll stick to the first half and would play it down to -3.
Pick: Warriors -2 1H
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