Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks, Prediction Today
We have basketball, and we have bets.
The 0-3 Memphis Grizzlies — who many liked to get the No. 1 seed this season (at least before Steven Adams' injury) — are back at home for the third time in four games and are dying for their first win of the season.
The Dallas Mavericks, who are 2-0, haven't yet played anyone as good on paper, but have handled business for two straight.
Will the law of averages level out, or will these streaks continue?
Pick: Grizzlies ML (+114)
Mavericks vs Grizzlies Picks, Odds
I'm backing the Grizzlies to get their first win of the season straight up on the moneyline at +114. They're +2.5 point underdogs at -112 on DraftKings, but with NBA spreads, if the underdog is listed at +3 or less, I'll just take them to straight-up win 99.9 percent of the time.
The Grizzlies have a bunch of injuries: Adams is done for the season, Brandon Clarke is out indefinitely, Ja Morant still has 22 games left on his suspension, Santi Aldama (ankle) and Luke Kennard (concussion) have shorter term injuries but are listed as out for tonight.
That said, do we really think Memphis is going to start the season 0-4? I mean, maybe?
But I'm expecting a big Desmond Bane performance against a team he's gotten 23 or more against in two of his last three, along with at least 7 rebounds and assists each time. He's off to a strong start to the season individually, save for a subpar shooting game against the defending NBA Champion Denver Nuggets.
It's a good spot for Xavier Tillman, who produced against Jonas Valanciunas and Nikola Jokic this season.
And maybe Jaren Jackson Jr., or as I call him — everyone's DPOY — wakes up and has himself a good game.
Luka Doncic is also averaging about 41-12-9 through two games, and we're not expecting that to just continue.
| Mavericks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 228 -110o / -110u | -140 |
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 228 -110o / -110u | +115 |
In totality, this is a law of averages bet. Even this short-handed, the Grizzlies can't be this bad. And in their defense, they had relatively close losses in all three games, the first against the Pelicans at home — a comparable team — then the defending champion Nuggets at home, followed by the Washington Wizards on the second of a back-to-back while on the road.
The Mavs won in San Antonio to start the season, and they're not good, plus they held serve against a visiting Brooklyn Nets team two days later, and won't have their first back-to-back until November 5 and 6.
