Lakers vs Clippers Picks, Prediction
Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs Clippers on Tuesday, Jan. 23 — our expert betting picks and prediction for today.
With a 27-14 record, the Clippers are quickly climbing the Western Conference standings. Los Angeles has won two straight games, eight of its last ten contests and now trails Minnesota by one game in the loss column.
Despite their success, one team the Clippers still need to figure out is the Lakers, who they're 0-2 against this season.
Tuesday's matchup will be the penultimate regular-season meeting between the two teams at Crypto.com Arena, with the Clippers set to move into their own digs in Inglewood for the 2024 campaign.
After handing the Clippers two losses, the Lakers don't seem too interested in giving their co-tenants any parting gifts.
However, an injury to LeBron James could help turn the tide. James is dealing with soreness from a lingering ankle injury and will not play against the Clippers.
As a result, we've seen the Clippers move to 8.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks after opening at -6.5. Consequently, the total moved down from 231.5 to 229.
While I can understand the adjustment on the point spread, I'll share why James' absence might not correlate with a lower-scoring game.
Let's get to our Lakers vs Clippers prediction and pick.
Lakers vs Clippers Prediction
Pick: Over 229.5 points or better
Lakers Betting Outlook
The first thing we need to understand about the Lakers is that they play with a ton of tempo on offense. Per TeamRankings, the Lakers sit eighth in pace with 104.4 possessions per game. Their home (104.3) /away (104.4) splits are also pretty even in this category.
But if tempo signals intent on offense, then effort might be its equivalent on defense. Based on their efficiency metrics, the Lakers have shown to be a completely different defensive team when on the road compared to at home.
When the Lakers are at home, they rank seventh in efficiency, allowing 107.5 points per 100 possessions, but as a visitor, they drop to 17th (113.9 points allowed per 100 possessions).
The disparity between the Lakers' defensive form at home and away is also evident when looking at the totals in their games.
According to our Action Labs database, the under is 16-9 in Lakers' home games, while the over is 14-6 when they go on the road.
Clippers Betting Outlook
Although the Clippers are one of the slower-paced teams, ranking 26th in possessions with 101.2 per game, that number slightly jumps to 101.7 when they're at home.
While there's no question they're more methodical in their approach, I prefer to describe the Clippers as a team that's always actively hunting for a better shot.
The Clippers rank fourth overall in effective field goal percentage (56.9%), which is adjusted to account for three-point field goals being worth more than two-pointers.
A closer look reveals that the Clippers are 11th in 3-point field goals with 13.2 per game. However, despite ranking 18th with 33.2 3-point attempts per contest, Los Angeles leads the league in 3-point shooting percentage (39.8%).
In the Clippers' last three games, they're averaging a league-best 16.7 3-pointers.
Thus, this is a team that can adeptly find another level when it comes to its perimeter shooting.
Lakers vs Clippers Picks, Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 234 -120o / 100u | +320 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 234 -120o / 100u | -410 |
While James will surely draw much of the injury-related headlines, the Clippers will be without their starting center Ivica Zubac. Zubac strained his right calf on Jan. 12 against the Grizzlies and could be out until mid-February.
The Clippers don't really have a ready replacement in terms of production for the Croatian, who's averaging nearly a double-double with 12.4 points and 9.7 rebounds.
Therefore, it's entirely plausible the Clippers will opt for a smaller lineup instead of a like-for-like substitute at the center position.
If we turn to the Lakers, they're allowing 119.75 points per game without James compared to 115 points when he plays. It's almost like there's a bit of a substitute teacher effect where the effort and attention levels aren't quite up to par when James isn't on the court.
As a result, we've seen the over cash all four times this season that James was inactive. Given the circumstances we've outlined for this matchup, I think that trend can remain intact yet again, with this game going over the total of 229.5 points.
Pick: Over 229.5 points or better
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