Knicks vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Picks for Sunday, March 3
Here's everything you need to know about Knicks vs. Cavaliers on Sunday, March 3 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.
The Knicks have lost some key contributors in recent months, and injuries have finally caught up with them as they've dropped seven of their last 10 contests. Now, a playoff rematch with the Cavaliers beckons yet again in Cleveland. Can the Knicks solve one of the toughest defenses in the NBA?
Let's get to our Knicks vs. Cavaliers prediction and pick.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Prediction
Pick: Knicks +6.5 (-110)
Knicks Betting Outlook
Much of what the Knicks have been able to do this season has been driven by their offense, yet in the month of February we saw very little of that as the team finished 19th in efficiency. The injuries to Julius Randle and OG Anunoby were critical, but the likes of Isaiah Hartenstein, Donte DiVincenzo, Bojan Bogdanovic and even Jalen Brunson missed time as well.
Now, the Knicks can at least claim it's just Randle and Anunoby — both of which are expected to return soon — who will be missing, and with that, this team certainly has to expect better on offense. This team's 3-point shooting, which has held it up all season long, cratered at just 34.2% in February according to Cleaning the Glass. Its transition scoring went from middling to horrendous too, dropping to dead last in the NBA, beating out the next-worst team by a whopping nine points per play.
We know the Knicks will shoot the three and get out in transition with great frequency, so they'll need to continue to improve in those areas. The good news is that their shooting has remained very consistent both on the road and at home, but the bad news is that even if some improvements are made this defense has also been in a massive slump. Just three times in their last 11 games have the Knicks held an opponent under 113 points per 100 possessions.
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Cavaliers Betting Outlook
The Cavaliers' defense has gone absolutely nowhere for the last couple of seasons now, and this offense has continued to blossom in 2024. It's ranked eighth in efficiency since the start of February, and in a scary sight for opponents the Cavaliers saw more than a two-point jump in their shooting accuracy from downtown last month as well as a marked improvement in their scoring at the rim.
Even more imposing is the fact that the Cavaliers have been 4.3 points better per 100 possessions at home and have been even better from downtown in these games. The reprieve for the Knicks here is the fact that the Cavs' defense has taken a step back on defense at home and since February 1 they've actually declined a bit in terms of their 3-point defense. Cleveland has still done a great job in transition and at the rim, seemingly leaving this game up to New York's 3-point shooting.
The Cavaliers have some potential absences to worry about in this one; Tristan Thompson is still away on a league suspension, and both Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert are listed as questionable for this game. The pair missed Friday's win over the Pistons, and Mitchell has now missed three of the Cavs' last six. Keep an eye on their status as we get closer to tip.
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Picks, Odds
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -108 | 212.5 100o / -120u | +205 |
| Cavaliers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -112 | 212.5 100o / -120u | -250 |
The Knicks have now gone back-to-back games under 31% shooting from outside, but they'd seen a pretty solid improvement in their shooting numbers prior to running into two good defenses in the Pelicans and Warriors. The Cavaliers are certainly a great defense, but there could be a slight glimmer of hope in their waning performance in defending the perimeter over the last few weeks.
New York is an undervalued team at the moment with a lot of absences around Randle and Anunoby affecting its performance last month, and with the team back to full health aside from those two and Mitchell Robinson, the Knicks should be a team worth buying back into as we approach the spring.
The Cavaliers have some very real injury concerns with Mitchell and LeVert, and against a Knicks team that is 15-13-1 against the spread on the road, I think this is a few too many points to spot the underdogs.
Pick: Knicks +6.5 (-110)
