Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Newcastle Odds | -223 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Newcastle and Nottingham Forest will square off to open the traditional Premier League Boxing Day slate, as both sides will be looking to accomplish different goals in the table in 2024.
Here is how I will be betting Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest. Read on for a full match preview ahead of their Boxing day clash.
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Newcastle
Newcastle are coming off a tough loss at Luton Town on Saturday, but if you look at the expected goals from that match, it probably should have ended in a draw.
The good news is they are coming back to St. James Park, which has been one of the best home field advantages in the Premier League, as they have accumulated 24 of their 29 points and have a +14.7 expected goal differential, which is the best in the Premier League. They also are so good in these types of situations against teams in the bottom half of the table.
Because Newcastle are a team whose identity is to press high, try to win the ball off their opponents and play in transition as opposed to the possession dominant teams around them in the top of the table, it makes life very difficult for their opponents that are forced into a transition back and forth type match with them.
Newcastle have struggled at times against teams that have handed them the ball and made them build up to try and break them down, but over the past two seasons they have been one of the best teams against lower tier competition. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Newcastle have a +32 expected goal differential in 30 matches.
Their attack is starting to get healthier with Alexander Isak coming back to face Luton Town, which is massive considering he has been a 0.79 xG per minute striker this season. Joelinton could also return for this match, which means that Newcastle will have everyone in their attack available.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest got an early red card against Bournemouth, so we didn’t get a full display of what Espírito Santo’s tactics are going to look like at Forest, but what we do know is he moved them away from the 3-5-2 low block under Steve Cooper into a more traditional 4-2-3-1 formation that he played in his years managing Wolves.
When he did manage Wolves, his teams were known for their blistering counterattacks, but where things fell apart was when they were tasked with having a lot of the ball. So, the change in manager allows Nottingham Forest to keep their same identity as a low block/transitional team, but the problem is they haven’t been very good in it this season.
Nottingham Forest’s last win came against Aston Villa at home on November 5th and since then they have picked up just one point and are now in the relegation fight. One of the reasons is because they lost their best striker Taiwo Awoniyi. Morgan Gibbs-White and Anthony Elanga haven’t put up the type production needed.
The other problem is since they are a transition based team, they are either going to have to sit in a low block and defend for the entire match against the Newcastle onslaught or they are going to have to get into a transition back and forth match with one of the best transition teams in the Premier League.
Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest
Prediction
This is a great matchup for Newcastle even if Nottingham Forest decide to sit in a low block and force them to break them down. Maybe a few weeks ago when Newcastle was in an injury crisis would this number have made sense, but Newcastle have been destroying teams at St. James Park, which has quickly become one of the best home field advantages in the Premier League.
The tactics for Nottingham Forest are going to remain relatively consistent even if Santo is going to change them to a 4-2-3-1. They are likely going to play a low block and try to keep Newcastle to a draw, but when you have conceded 6.7 expected goals over your last four matches, the low block might not be very effective.
I have Newcastle's spread projected at -1.69, so I like the value on the Magpies -1 at -114.
