Everton vs Chelsea Odds
| Everton Odds | +200 |
| Chelsea Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Everton looks to build off their win over Newcastle when they host Chelsea on Sunday.
The Toffees have been handed a lot of adversity this season, starting with the 10-point deduction. However, it might not matter because Sean Dyche is cooking up something special. Everton's underlying numbers suggest that they're a top half of the table club and this is a perfect opportunity, against a Big Six club, to distance themselves from the relegation zone.
The final scoreline won't show how bad Chelsea were beaten by Manchester United on Wednesday. Chelsea is in 10th place and given the amount of money Chelsea have spent in the past three transfer windows, you have to question when this "project" is going to start to take shape.
Here is my Everton vs Chelsea prediction.
Everton
Everton put in a masterful performance against Newcastle on Thursday, winning the match 3-0 and beating Newcastle on expected goals 3.2 to 1.3.
The Toffees have a +4.1 xGD and the tactical plan Dyche has them set up in is really working. Everton have two different tactical plans. The first is where they relentlessly press opponents man to man to try and force high turnovers, which has worked to great success. The second is Dyche going back to his old ways at Burnley and sitting in a mid block, trying to limit central progression from the opponent and force the ball out wide.
My guess is that Dyche is going to have his team press Chelsea high in this match. Everton has one of the lowest PPDA in the league because there have been numerous matches where they have played very passive in their low block, but they are seventh in high turnovers forced and have the second-most ball recoveries in the Premier League. Everton have also been one of the best teams in the Premier League at limiting high quality chances because they have conceded the fourth-fewest non-penalty expected goals and the second-fewest big scoring chances.
Dyche likes to play "no nonsense" football. Everton isn't going to build out of the back, they are going to send the ball long and look to play very direct, which has worked this season and will be a big advantage against a Chelsea side that has struggled defending in transition. Everton love to get the ball into wide areas and try to create chances via crosses, which has worked because they are averaging 1.62 npxG per 90 minutes.
Chelsea
Chelsea played arguably their worst match of the season on Wednesday against Manchester United. The Blues continue to look like they are improving, but abruptly halt that improvement with a bad performance.
They have been underperforming their underlying offensive numbers for a long time and although they're due to positively regress, they don't have a clear No. 9 that can consistently finish off chances. Christopher Nkunku's return is imminent, but he's listed as doubtful for this match. Right now, Raheem Sterling has been the only consistent attack for the Blues, which is a problem.
There were major problems for Chelsea in build up against Manchester United that may alse be a big issue here. Chelsea turned the ball over high 12 times at Old Trafford, leading to numerous chances for the Red Devils.
Outside of the obvious issues in build up, Chelsea have two other areas of massive concern. First, they’ve been a bad transition defense this season. When the Blues lose the ball or aren’t effective enough with their high press, teams have been able to get into their penalty box with ease, as Chelsea ranks 19th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed. The Blues are also 14th in xG allowed per set piece, which is bad news against a Dyche coached team.
Everton vs Chelsea
Prediction
Given the performance against Manchester United on Wednesday, and the clear problems in build up, there is a lot to be concerned about with Chelsea. Not only can Everton cause major problems with their high press, but Everton can also do the two things Chelsea struggles with most defensively — defending in transition and defending set pieces.
Everton has been incredible at Goodison Park this season — +6.8 xGD — and there really isn’t a reason for Chelsea to be favored. I have this match projected right at a pick’em, so I like the value on Everton Draw no Bet at +124 (FanDuel).
