Chelsea vs Arsenal Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +220 |
| Arsenal Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -118 / -106 |
Arsenal are tied on points with North London rivals Tottenham as the Premier League emerges from the October international break. The Gunners scored a late deflected goal from Gabriel Martinelli off the bench to beat Manchester City 1-0 in the final match before the break and now Arsenal have a difficult away trip across London to face capital rivals Chelsea.
The Blues won consecutive league matches headed into the break against Fulham and Burnley away from home. Now they're back at Stamford Bridge and might finally have broken through their spell of poor finishing in front of goal that has cost them dozens of points in the last calendar year.
Either way, the Blues will face a very difficult task as a home underdog on Saturday. There's some major questions for Arsenal that still need to be sorted out before kick-off, including the status of Bukayo Saka and William Saliba.
Here is my breakdown of Chelsea vs Arsenal.
Chelsea
For all of the talk of Chelsea’s struggles, the Blues have been an elite defensive pressing side under Mauricio Pochettino this year. Chelsea have conceded the fewest final third entries in the league, the third-fewest non-penalty xG and the lowest build-up completion rate allowed. The Blues should be able to disrupt Arsenal’s build-up structure with their press and force the game to be more transitional than Arteta wants it to be.
The tactical battle is Chelsea’s attempt to speed the game up against the control obsessed Arteta. This match won’t be as conservative as Manchester City vs. Arsenal two weeks ago, but the Blues attacking numbers are still quite mediocre. Chelsea are 11th in shots per 90, 11th in big scoring chances and seventh in NPxG per 90 despite playing just one team in the top half of the league by xGA.
Yes, there's positive finishing regression coming for Chelsea and no team in the league has run worse in the last calendar year, but the true talent ceiling of the attack right now is still pretty low. Nico Jackson has adapted well to the Premier League and put up some decent shot numbers, but the surrounding talent is still pretty average in production, and Jackson isn't enough to carry a top four attack on his own.
One exciting player to watch is Cole Palmer, who has put up impressive shot numbers already in his short time at the club. Chelsea and Pochettino are still trying to figure out what the best XI is going forward, so I expect more growing pains in attack while the defense remains elite.
Arsenal
You could make a case that Saka and Saliba are Arsenal's two most important players. Saka withdrew from England's squad due to the injury and Arteta said on Friday that, "he has been working so hard to be fit for this game, and let’s see where he is at today. He had a couple of days off that he needed as well, but the rest [of the break] has not been rest for him because he needed to train and get ready [for] Chelsea."
That sounds like he's trending toward being in the lineup on Saturday, but we saw in the match against Lens in the Champions League that he's not 100% and could be less effective or have to come off after re-aggravating the thigh problem. Arsenal's attack looked rather lifeless in the 140 minutes it played without him against Lens and Manchester City. The Gunners lacked the 1-on-1 creativity to break down a high quality defense, and Chelsea have proven their mettle as an excellent defensive outfit at this point in the season.
Arteta also commented on the health of Saliba, saying "he has been carrying that for weeks now, and we have to use that time to settle. We believe that this was the best moment to do it." I'm quite optimistic that he'll start given he had the international break to nurse the injury.
Even if both play, Arsenal's attack has taken a clear step back this season. The Gunners scored early in the first 10 minutes of matches a ton last season, which forced teams to be more open and aggressive in chasing the game against them. Arsenal are now 12th in the league in non-penalty xG produced, just fourth in box entries, fifth in final third entries and ninth in shots per 90. There's nothing in the data to suggest we're missing much, beyond that Gabriel Jesus missed a bunch of early minutes and Saka missed a match. Leandro Trossard will likely miss this match, and he's been high quality bench depth for Arteta too.
The primary difference has been the regression of Martin Odegaard's production in the center of the penalty area. Arsenal's done a lot of conservative possession, but they've actually produced fewer non-penalty xG than Everton, for example.
Chelsea vs Arsenal
Pick & Prediction
Unless Saka is in and Saliba is out, this total is too high. The Blues are well set-up to prevent Arsenal from the conservative possession and the Gunners aren't doing nearly enough to exploit defenses in transition right now. The Gunners continue to be at times painfully passive and while this defense held Manchester City and Spurs from creating many big chances (Jorginho error vs. Spurs aside), the attacking output has taken a clear step back this season.
It’s hard to see this game with a lot of goals. I’d bet the under 2.5 at -120 or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-120 or better)
