Bournemouth vs Liverpool Odds
| Bournemouth Odds | +320 |
| Liverpool Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211o / +160u |
Bournemouth looks to continue its ascension up the table when it hosts league-leaders Liverpool.
Bournemouth started the year terribly under Andoni Iraola, but has since turned things around, winning seven of its last nine matches. But they've done it against the easy part of the schedule. This will be a true test to see if the Cherries can hang with one of the elite clubs in the Premier League.
Liverpool has been on a great run lately to get it to the top spot in the Premier League. They will be a little limited in this match because of players representing their countries at the Africa Cup of Nations and Asian Cup, but with Manchester City getting fully healthy, the Reds are going to need every point possible to hold them off over the second half of the season.
Let's take a closer look at this one in our Bournemouth vs Liverpool preview and prediction.
Bournemouth
The reason Bournemouth has gone on this great run is a mixture of a couple factors. First, the schedule has lightened up. It lost the last time out in the Premier League, but it beat a shorthanded Newcastle team, a Manchester United squad in a state of chaos and a bunch of teams in the bottom half of the table.
Secondly, the hybrid press is starting to hit home and cause a lot of problems for its opponents. The hybrid press is a mixture of man-to-man and zonal pressure, designed to trap teams on one side of the pitch to eventually attempt to turn the ball over high and get a transition opportunity. Bournemouth is eighth in high turnovers and ninth in PPDA, but have a Premier League-leading six goals off forced high turnovers.
What has been encouraging for Bournemouth, especially in a match like this, is its clear plan to play long passes up to its forwards rather than trying to build out of the back. Liverpool's counter press is working better than ever right now, so the Cherries will have to play more direct to avoid getting turned over high.
The biggest thing here for Bournemouth is not conceding first. When playing from behind this season, Bournemouth has a -1.05 xGD per 90 minutes because it has to be uber aggressive with its pressing, which leaves a lot of space in behind the first line of pressure.
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Liverpool
Things are clicking right now for Liverpool, but it has lost three of its most important players for this match.
Mohamed Salah is away representing Egypt in the Africa Cup of Nations, which is significant for Liverpool considering he's in the best form he's ever been since he arrived. Salah currently is at a 0.93 npxG + xA per 90 minutes, third best in the Premier League behind only Erling Haaland and Darwin Núñez. Whoever Liverpool decides to replace him with on the right, which will most likely be Harvey Elliott, will not provide that same type of production.
Trent Alexander-Arnold is also injured, which is a massive blow to Liverpool's build up. Alexander-Arnold's ability to not only invert into the middle of the pitch to be Liverpool's main creator, but also his ability to find space out wide to progress the ball up the pitch is nothing short of extraordinary. He is first on the team in both progressive passes and passes into the final third by a pretty wide margin, so losing him is going to make it more difficult for Liverpool to build up against Bournemouth's hybrid press.
Wataru Endō is off representing Japan in the Asian Cup, which is a loss for Liverpool because during its resurgence, his ball-winning and pressing in the middle of the pitch has been so crucial to the Reds out of possession. What the high press has done for Liverpool is allowed them to drastically improve defensively. Over its last nine Premier League matches, Liverpool has only allowed 7.5 non-penalty expected goals and its PPDA is at 7.07, which is by far the best mark in the Premier League.
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Prediction
With Liverpool being shorthanded, this is a good time to fade them against a team like Bournemouth that can cause a lot of problems.
This match will likely turn into a back-and-forth battle because both teams are at their best playing in transition rather than trying to build out of the back against both high presses.
Even though it's been an easy schedule, since Nov. 11, Bournemouth has the second best expected goal differential in the Premier League to only Arsenal, which goes to show this run is no fluke.
With Liverpool being without Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Endō, I like the value on Bournemouth +0.5 at +110.
Pick: Bournemouth +0.5 (+110 via Bet365)
