Arsenal vs Brighton Odds
| Arsenal Odds | -225 |
| Brighton Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +400 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175/+135 |
Arsenal looks to keep pace with Liverpool at the top of the table when they host Brighton at the Emirates.
Arsenal's title hopes were dealt a blow last Saturday when they lost 1-0 at Aston Villa. The loss allowed Liverpool to jump them in the table and now the Gunners are desperate to get things back on track. Brighton hammered them 3-0 towards the end of last season, so this will not be an easy match for Arsenal.
Brighton couldn't complete the comeback last weekend against Burnley, drawing 1-1. The Seagulls though are starting to find their form and make a charge up the table. Under Roberto De Zerbi they have been one of the best teams in the Premier League at beating the Big Six, so we'll see if they can get another historic result on Sunday.
Find my Arsenal vs Brighton prediction and pick below.
Arsenal
Arsenal has shown some vulnerabilities when they play elite pressing teams. If we go back to the Chelsea match, they turned it over high nine times. Against Newcastle, they only had a build up completion percentage of 83% when for the season they are averaging closer to 90%. Brighton is a top four team in the Premier League at both PPDA and opponent build up completion percentage allowed, so they could turn Arsenal over a few times high up the pitch. In the meeting last season, Brighton had a PPDA of 8.1 and held Arsenal to a buildup completion percentage of 79.6%, which is one of the lowest of the Mikel Arteta era.
The more interesting dilemma is what Arsenal does out of possession. Do they give Brighton what they want and press them high or do they do what a lot of teams have been very successful at doing against Brighton, which is sit in a very compact defensive shape and don’t take the bait.
Arsenal is one of the best out of possession teams in the world because they are not only an elite pressing team, but they are elite in defending in both transition and set defense. The Gunners are only allowing 0.72 npxG per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season and have allowed the fewest big scoring chances as well, but Brighton is certainly a very difficult opponent to stop.
Arsenal has been struggling to play through the middle of the pitch, which is a problem in this match because that is the area Brighton wants to control. Opponents know how good Arsenal are in build up, so they are staying narrow shape out of possession and forcing Arsenal to play the ball into wide areas.
Then once the ball goes wide to Saka or Martinelli, opponents are double teaming them, which then causes Arsenal to circulate the ball back and forth around the opposing low block until they can find an opening. All of that ball circulation is why Arsenal have the second-lowest percentage of chances created coming through the middle of the pitch, which is a big problem.
Brighton
What has been great about this new version of De Zerbi is Brighton have now turned into one of the best defensive teams in the league. Even when they conceded three goals and 2.1 xG to Chelsea, two goals came off a set piece and another was a penalty. Since Oct. 21, Brighton have allowed the second fewest non-penalty expected goals in the Premier League at 6.8 in eight matches.
Pep Guardiola coined the phrase earlier this season “If you control the center of the pitch, you control the match” and De Zerbi is a big believer in that. In build up he wants 4 v 3s all through the middle, so he is basically building up in a 4-2-2-2 to try and give his team the best possible chance at playing through the middle.
It has been successful too because Brighton have the second best build up completion percentage and are also second in progressive passes + dribbles per 90 minutes. In this match though against an elite pressing team like Arsenal, we may see a lot of long balls over the top from the centerbacks to Mitoma and Adingra to bypass the high press. Brighton did this time and time again in the meeting last year with Arsenal because Mitoma especially is almost impossible to guard in 1 v 1 situations and has more pace than Ben White.
Arsenal vs Brighton
Prediction
This is a fascinating tactical battle for a number of different reasons.
If we go back towards the end of last season when Arsenal were in free fall and City were charging ahead of them, this is one of the match that put the final nail in the coffin. Brighton went to the Emirates and beat Arsenal 3-0. Arsenal closed as a -130 favorite in that match and now significantly higher in this spot even though not a whole lot has changed.
The Seagulls are not afraid when they go on the road to face a big six club. Since De Zerbi has taken over, in seven away matches against the Big Six, they have a +2.3 xGD. They can disrupt Arsenal's build up play again and have the tactical set up to give one of the best out of possession teams in the world some problems.
I think the market is pricing Brighton too low given how impressive their defensive performances have been, even if they haven’t kept a clean sheet this season. I also only have Arsenal projected at -138, so I like the value on Brighton +1 at +108 (Bet365).
