PSV vs Arsenal Odds
| PSV Odds | +162 |
| Arsenal Odds | +160 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Arsenal and PSV meet in Eindhoven for a completely meaningless match to close out the Champions League group stage.
PSV have already qualified in second place in this group as they sit four points behind Arsenal and hold the tiebreaker over Lens. So, the question is how much are they going to care about this match? It is one of the biggest clubs in the world coming to your ground, so they may be up for it just to pull off an upset.
Arsenal were beaten on the weekend by Aston Villa at Villa Park to drop them one point behind Liverpool in the Premier League title race. The fixtures have been piling up for the Gunners and they have a huge match this weekend at home against Brighton, so I think you will see a heavily rotated team from Mikel Arteta.
Let's get into my PSV vs Arsenal prediction.
Utilize our latest Hard Rock Bet promo code before making your Champions League wagers.
PSV
PSV are a perfect 15-for-15 in the Ereidivise this season under Bosz, and the reason for it is because their counter-pressing has improved quite a bit as the PPDA has gone down, and their high turnovers per 90 minutes have gone up considerably.
They also are putting up ridiculous underlying numbers averaging 2.94 npxG per 90 minutes and 23.9 shots per match, but that was largely against lesser competition. The reason they are putting up these ridiculous numbers is because there are some interesting tactical things that Bosz is doing. He is utilizing positional play where they don’t necessarily put an emphasis on one area of the pitch, but instead try to create numerical advantages and manipulate the defense to create space for runners from the midfield to invade the box.
The big question with non-big five league sides that dominate possession and rack up great underlying metrics in a weak domestic league comparatively to teams they are going to face in the Champions League is how will they cope with not having a majority of the ball for the full 90 minutes.
In the first meeting with Arsenal at the Emirates they showed that they are not a great team out of possession when they are playing a good build up side. Arsenal controlled 58% of the ball in that match, had a build up completion percentage of 90%, and PSV's PPDA was 14.2. There have been only two other instances where they have held under 50% possession this season, against Lens and Feyenoord. They won both of those matches, but the xG was pretty close in both of them.
Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State! Check out the latest news on North Carolina sports betting.
Arsenal
The biggest question in this match for Arsenal is who is going to play, and I would argue a completely rotated squad can still successfully play Mikel Arteta's tactics of slow possession and controlling matches from the start. The problem is, I am not sure they have enough midfielders healthy. Fabio Viera, Thomas Parety, and Emile Smith Rowe are all injured, so I think we'll see a much more defensive approach with Mohmed Elneny and Jorginho as the two holding midfielders. They also do not have much depth in defense with Tomiyasu and Timber injured, so Gabriel, Ben White and Saliba may be forced to play.
Arteta really should rest Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus. That means Arsenal's front three is likely going to be Leandro Trossard, Eddie Nketiah and Reiss Nelson, which is a massive downgrade for an Arsenal offense that is already struggling against good defensive teams.
Arsenal haven't been among England's elite offensively because they are struggling to play through the middle of the pitch. Opponents know how good Arsenal are in build up, so they are staying narrow shape out of possession and forcing Arsenal to play the ball into wide areas. Usually Saka and Martinelli are great in 1 v 1 situations or at creating chances, but they aren't going to play in this match, so it's likely going to be a difficult day for Arsenal offensively.
Given the lack of depth, Arsenal are going to have to play some of their regulars in defense, which is actually a good thing because Arsenal are one of the best defensive teams in the world, allowing only 0.71 npxG per 90 minutes.
Many sportsbooks will be coming to North Carolina once sports betting is live, check out the latest on BetMGM North Carolina.
PSV vs Arsenal
Prediction
With this match meaning absolutely nothing, I think you are going to see a lot of stale possession from both teams.
The Arsenal attack was already struggling, but without there three best attackers and their consistent struggles at playing through the middle of the pitch, Saka and Martinelli are not going to be there to save them time and time again.
However, the team that will be assembled will still be able to play Arsenal's ball control slow possession tactics, and they should be able to play through PSV's pressure. PSV also have an important road trip to Alkmaar in the Eredivisie this weekend, so you have to question how rotated their squad will be as well.
With this match meaning absolutely nothing, I think we are going to see a very low event type match between two good defensive sides. I only have 2.4 goals projected, so I like the value on the under.
