We've reached the second leg of quarterfinal play in the Champions League with three of four ties pretty much wrapped up already.
BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the latest set of contests with their best bets on the slate, including Napoli vs AC Milan and Bayern Munich vs Manchester City.
The pair, part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be taking you through the Champions League fixtures, delivering their favorite picks along the way. They'll also provide their individual model projections for the games.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
Cunningham's Model Projections
Napoli vs AC Milan
| Napoli Odds | -143 |
| AC Milan Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Cunningham: The first leg was very even between these two sides and I don’t think there is any reason why the second leg won’t be as well. Going into the first leg, AC Milan needed to disrupt Napoli’s build up play, which they did a good job of as the match went along.
For the first 20 minutes, however, AC Milan were beat pretty soundly. They were way too passive, which resulted in a few chances from Napoli, but the important point here is that none of those chances outside the of the Kvaratskhelia chance in the opening minute were of any quality. From the second minute of the match until the 87th minute, none of Napoli’s 13 shots had an xG rating over 0.1.
After the first 20 minutes, AC Milan started getting aggressive with their man-mark pressing that caused Napoli so many problems in the 4-0 win. It was effective, as they had a PPDA of 7.6 and forced four high turnovers.
On the other side of the pitch, Napoli learned from their mistakes in a prior 4-0 loss. They didn’t press high as often as they normally do because they were afraid of giving Bennacer and Tonali space in behind, but they didn’t close Milan down well enough and that eventually led to the first goal.
Victor Osimhen will be back for this match which is massive for Napoli, but they are going to be without Anguissa and Kim Min-Jae, who are both suspended.
I believe the market is overvaluing Napoli in this spot when they are missing two of their most important players. I only have them projected at +113, so I like the value on AC Milan +0.5 at +110.
Pick:AC Milan +0.5 (+110)
Bayern Munich vs Manchester City
| Bayern Munich Odds | +170 |
| Manchester City Odds | +137 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188 / +150) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | CBS |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Dabbundo: Bayern Munich’s attack has taken a clear step back in production in the last few weeks since the arrival of Thomas Tuchel, and now they’ll face the best team in the world with a three-goal deficit. The injury to Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting has left them without a true recognized striker, and the poor form of Serge Gnabry and Sadio Mané has only further complicated the attacking problems for Bayern. The Bavarians scored once against Hoffenheim, produced just 0.9 xG in the first leg and managed two goals in two matches against Freiburg.
You could argue that Manchester City’s defense is actually underrated when you consider they’ve allowed the second-most goals per shot on target in the league and they’ve maintained their above average shot quality allowed ratings. Bayern’s defense held up pretty well in the first leg without the ball, and it was only when Bayern made mistakes in possession and turned it over high that City were able to capitalize and score quick strike goals.
I’m expecting City to apply considerably less ball pressure in the Bayern half of the pitch with the three-goal lead. As a result, Bayern are less at risk of committing high turnovers, but they’ll struggle to get numerical advantages against City in the attacking areas.
The total sitting at three in Manchester for the first leg seemed right to me, but now it’s a shade too high with City not needing to push for more goals. My projections for this match have just 2.88 goals and I’m willing to bet under 3 at -115 or better.
Pick: Under 3(-110)
