Intro
Champions League Odds & Picks
| AC Milan Odds | +162 |
| Newcastle Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -108 |
The market has taken some under money in the days leading up to kickoff, but I'd still bet the under 2.5 at -110 or better for this kickoff game in Group F, also known as the 'Group of Death.' Milan maintains solid defensive numbers by being extremely conservative in possession and not committing a ton of numbers toward a high press out of possession. The attack can become extremely reliant on Rafael Leao's ball carrying at times and the lack of a second dimension or willingness to commit numbers forward can lead to long periods of offensive stagnation. Milan got smoked in transition against rivals Inter on Saturday in their derby, but the current version of Newcastle isn't nearly as dynamic going forward right now as that Inter side.
We've seen Newcastle be an extremely stout defensive side under Eddie Howe for the last calendar year, especially when he has the first choice defenders available. Only Manchester City conceded fewer expected goals in the league last year and Newcastle has conceded the fourth fewest xG in the new season despite playing by far the most difficult schedule of opponents.
The Magpies don't take many risks in possession either, as evidenced by their matchup with Brentford on Saturday in the Premier League. I expect Howe to play a front three of Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron, which would mean Callum Wilson is on the bench. This helps Newcastle out of possession and further improves their defensive press, but they do sacrifice in attacking output and shot quality with that lineup. Two conservative managers in a difficult group means this match may play out in a less exciting manner than most expect.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-108 via bet365)
| AC Milan Odds | +162 |
| Newcastle Odds | +162 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -112 / -108 |
The market has taken some under money in the days leading up to kickoff, but I'd still bet the under 2.5 at -110 or better for this kickoff game in Group F, also known as the 'Group of Death.' Milan maintains solid defensive numbers by being extremely conservative in possession and not committing a ton of numbers toward a high press out of possession. The attack can become extremely reliant on Rafael Leao's ball carrying at times and the lack of a second dimension or willingness to commit numbers forward can lead to long periods of offensive stagnation. Milan got smoked in transition against rivals Inter on Saturday in their derby, but the current version of Newcastle isn't nearly as dynamic going forward right now as that Inter side.
We've seen Newcastle be an extremely stout defensive side under Eddie Howe for the last calendar year, especially when he has the first choice defenders available. Only Manchester City conceded fewer expected goals in the league last year and Newcastle has conceded the fourth fewest xG in the new season despite playing by far the most difficult schedule of opponents.
The Magpies don't take many risks in possession either, as evidenced by their matchup with Brentford on Saturday in the Premier League. I expect Howe to play a front three of Anthony Gordon, Alexander Isak and Miguel Almiron, which would mean Callum Wilson is on the bench. This helps Newcastle out of possession and further improves their defensive press, but they do sacrifice in attacking output and shot quality with that lineup. Two conservative managers in a difficult group means this match may play out in a less exciting manner than most expect.
