RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Odds
| RB Leipzig Odds | +260 |
| Bayern Munich Odds | -110 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +200 |
The two top teams in my Bundesliga power ratings face off Saturday as RB Leipzig hosts Bayern Munich. Leipzig has won four straight matches since its opening weekend defeat on the road at Bayer Leverkusen. Meanwhile, Bayern has dropped just two points from the available 18.
The Bavarians thrashed Bochum 7-0 last week and will be looking for revenge after Leipzig beat them in the German Supercup at the start of the season. However, that match came before Harry Kane fully joined the Bayern Munich attack. Kane came off the bench in that match, an eventual 3-0 win for Leipzig.
Marco Rose's side hasn't put up dominant underlying numbers in the way Bayern has, but there are some game state effects that tamper down Leipzig's data. Rose's side is undervalued to get a result on Saturday.
RB Leipzig
It's hard to maintain the same level of performance after selling three of your best players in the summer, but Leipzig seems to have done exactly that. Rose's side got their business done early and the early returns showed that Leipzig's excellent business has paid off.
They lost Christopher Nkunku, Josko Gvardiol and Dominik Szoboszlai to the Premier League and have managed to replace all three without a real drop off in attacking production. The replacements in Leipzig's 4-2-2-2 system have added versatility, passing range and shot production. New signings Lois Openda and Xavi Simons each have three goals already and Benjamin Sesko has also added two.
Leipzig has dramatically outperformed its xG in attack — 14 goals from 6.3 xG is extremely unsustainable — but the overperformance has come early in games and enabled them to sit off and play more passively. The Augsburg match was a classic example as Leipzig scored three early goals, then went on to lose the xG despite the match never really being in doubt.
Leipzig has top four defensive xGA numbers despite playing Leverkusen, Gladbach and Stuttgart, who all grade out as above average attacks in the league.
Bayern Munich
It's hard to poke holes in Bayern's underlying stats through five matches. They've produced a +2.23 xG difference per 90 minutes and although they've only played one above average side, that's considerably better than the numbers produced last year.
Adding Kane to an attack that was already the best in the Bundesliga has gone as you'd expect. Bayern averaged 2.21 xG per 90 last season and has produced 2.98 xG per match early this season.
Even if you shave off some from the top because of schedule adjustments, a healthy Serge Gnabry, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sane and Kane is the best attacking outfit in the world. Bayern's problems come before that. Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka as a double pivot have regularly had issues in defensive transition and the Leverkusen match exposed concerns with them in build-up play.
Leipzig is sure to apply a press off the ball to take away space into the middle and Kimmich was often isolated against Leverkusen in build-up. Leverkusen forced everything out wide and held Bayern to 2.0 xG — half of which came from set pieces.
RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Pick & Prediction
This market was priced exactly the same last season when Bayern visited Leipzig in the first match after the World Cup. Since then, Bayern went through a poor stretch (for their standards), then responded by adding Kane to the fold. Leipzig had top eight numbers in all of Europe in the post World Cup period last year and I've seen nothing in the new season to suggest Leipzig should be downgraded.
We've seen Leipzig play from behind and nearly come back to tie Leverkusen. They won't be out of this match if Bayern scores first and we're going to learn a lot about Bayern's second phase build-up ability in midfield after the Bavarians struggled with Leverkusen.
I bet Leipzig to get a result in January and will do so again on Saturday.
